Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.472.72safe0.28–2.220.61–2.320.90–4.54safer0.03–2.470.39–2.550.42–5.02
Shots on target
33%
13%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.994.758.74safe2.12–5.853.01–6.505.14–12.35safer1.63–6.342.55–6.964.18–13.30
Total shots
40%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9513.7126.66safe9.03–16.8710.14–17.2719.17–34.14safer7.93–17.979.19–18.2317.12–36.20
Shots in box
39%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction7.918.5716.48safe4.96–10.855.89–11.2510.85–22.10safer4.13–11.685.15–11.999.29–23.67
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.323.526.83safe1.44–5.201.86–5.173.30–10.37safer0.89–5.741.37–5.662.26–11.41
Corners
38%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.594.999.57safe2.37–6.802.99–6.995.36–13.79safer1.80–7.382.45–7.524.25–14.89
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.1948.94safe44.40–57.9842.16–55.73safer42.73–59.6540.48–57.40
Passes
59%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction451425876safe384–518358–491742–1010safer366–536341–509707–1045
Pass accuracy %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction70.1572.51safe66.12–74.1868.18–76.83safer64.82–75.4766.88–78.14
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6213.6726.29safe9.78–15.4610.73–16.6120.51–32.07safer9.03–16.229.98–17.3619.01–33.58
Offsides
40%
21%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.921.903.82safe0.76–3.080.81–2.991.57–6.08safer0.46–3.380.52–3.280.98–6.66
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.242.494.73safe1.19–3.281.36–3.622.55–6.90safer0.92–3.551.07–3.911.99–7.46
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.26safe0.00–0.280.00–0.330.00–0.61safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.89
GK saves
50%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.605.74safe1.70–4.571.04–4.152.74–8.73safer1.31–4.960.62–4.581.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.47 0.61–2.32 0.39–2.55 | 2.72 0.90–4.54 0.42–5.02 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.99 2.12–5.85 1.63–6.34 | 4.75 3.01–6.50 2.55–6.96 | 8.74 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.30 | 33% 13% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.95 9.03–16.87 7.93–17.97 | 13.71 10.14–17.27 9.19–18.23 | 26.66 19.17–34.14 17.12–36.20 | 40% 52% |
| Shots in box | 7.91 4.96–10.85 4.13–11.68 | 8.57 5.89–11.25 5.15–11.99 | 16.48 10.85–22.10 9.29–23.67 | 39% 52% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.44–5.20 0.89–5.74 | 3.52 1.86–5.17 1.37–5.66 | 6.83 3.30–10.37 2.26–11.41 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.59 2.37–6.80 1.80–7.38 | 4.99 2.99–6.99 2.45–7.52 | 9.57 5.36–13.79 4.25–14.89 | 38% 49% |
| Possession % | 51.19 44.40–57.98 42.73–59.65 | 48.94 42.16–55.73 40.48–57.40 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 451 384–518 366–536 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 876 742–1010 707–1045 | 59% 41% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.15 66.12–74.18 64.82–75.47 | 72.51 68.18–76.83 66.88–78.14 | — | 36% 59% |
| Fouls | 12.62 9.78–15.46 9.03–16.22 | 13.67 10.73–16.61 9.98–17.36 | 26.29 20.51–32.07 19.01–33.58 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.92 0.76–3.08 0.46–3.38 | 1.90 0.81–2.99 0.52–3.28 | 3.82 1.57–6.08 0.98–6.66 | 40% 21% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 2.24 1.19–3.28 0.92–3.55 | 2.49 1.36–3.62 1.07–3.91 | 4.73 2.55–6.90 1.99–7.46 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 2.60 1.04–4.15 0.62–4.58 | 5.74 2.74–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 50% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+