Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
62%
22%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction1.820.772.58safe0.85–2.790.00–1.620.76–4.41safer0.60–3.040.00–1.850.28–4.89
Shots on target
79%
homeawaytotalprediction5.392.608.00safe3.53–7.260.86–4.344.39–11.60safer3.04–7.750.39–4.813.43–12.56
Total shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction15.958.7324.69safe12.03–19.885.17–12.3017.20–32.17safer10.94–20.974.21–13.2615.15–34.22
Shots in box
85%
homeawaytotalprediction10.015.4915.50safe7.07–12.952.81–8.179.88–21.13safer6.24–13.782.07–8.918.31–22.69
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction4.042.586.62safe2.16–5.920.93–4.243.09–10.16safer1.61–6.460.44–4.732.05–11.19
Corners
80%
homeawaytotalprediction5.912.978.88safe3.70–8.120.97–4.974.67–13.10safer3.12–8.700.44–5.513.56–14.20
Possession %
94%
homeawayprediction63.6436.07safe56.85–70.4329.29–42.86safer55.18–72.1027.62–44.53
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction612340952safe545–679273–406818–1085safer527–698256–424782–1121
Pass accuracy %
83%
14%
homeawayprediction76.4968.71safe72.46–80.5264.38–73.03safer71.17–81.8263.07–74.34
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3812.6526.03safe10.55–16.229.70–15.5920.25–31.81safer9.79–16.988.95–16.3418.75–33.32
Offsides
60%
19%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction2.301.273.57safe1.14–3.460.18–2.371.32–5.83safer0.84–3.760.00–2.650.73–6.42
Yellow cards
33%
20%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.872.214.09safe0.82–2.921.08–3.341.91–6.26safer0.56–3.190.79–3.631.35–6.82
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
17%
14%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction1.873.565.42safe0.43–3.302.00–5.112.43–8.42safer0.04–3.691.58–5.541.62–9.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.82 0.85–2.79 0.60–3.04 | 0.77 0.00–1.62 0.00–1.85 | 2.58 0.76–4.41 0.28–4.89 | 62% 22% 15% |
| Shots on target | 5.39 3.53–7.26 3.04–7.75 | 2.60 0.86–4.34 0.39–4.81 | 8.00 4.39–11.60 3.43–12.56 | 79% |
| Total shots | 15.95 12.03–19.88 10.94–20.97 | 8.73 5.17–12.30 4.21–13.26 | 24.69 17.20–32.17 15.15–34.22 | 91% |
| Shots in box | 10.01 7.07–12.95 6.24–13.78 | 5.49 2.81–8.17 2.07–8.91 | 15.50 9.88–21.13 8.31–22.69 | 85% |
| Blocked shots | 4.04 2.16–5.92 1.61–6.46 | 2.58 0.93–4.24 0.44–4.73 | 6.62 3.09–10.16 2.05–11.19 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.91 3.70–8.12 3.12–8.70 | 2.97 0.97–4.97 0.44–5.51 | 8.88 4.67–13.10 3.56–14.20 | 80% |
| Possession % | 63.64 56.85–70.43 55.18–72.10 | 36.07 29.29–42.86 27.62–44.53 | — | 94% |
| Passes | 612 545–679 527–698 | 340 273–406 256–424 | 952 818–1085 782–1121 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 76.49 72.46–80.52 71.17–81.82 | 68.71 64.38–73.03 63.07–74.34 | — | 83% 14% |
| Fouls | 13.38 10.55–16.22 9.79–16.98 | 12.65 9.70–15.59 8.95–16.34 | 26.03 20.25–31.81 18.75–33.32 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 2.30 1.14–3.46 0.84–3.76 | 1.27 0.18–2.37 0.00–2.65 | 3.57 1.32–5.83 0.73–6.42 | 60% 19% 20% |
| Yellow cards | 1.87 0.82–2.92 0.56–3.19 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.09 1.91–6.26 1.35–6.82 | 33% 20% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 1.87 0.43–3.30 0.04–3.69 | 3.56 2.00–5.11 1.58–5.54 | 5.42 2.43–8.42 1.62–9.23 | 17% 14% 69% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.