Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.102.50safe0.43–2.370.24–1.950.67–4.32safer0.18–2.620.02–2.180.19–4.80
Shots on target
57%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.883.848.72safe3.02–6.742.10–5.585.12–12.33safer2.53–7.231.63–6.054.16–13.28
Total shots
68%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7711.9026.67safe10.84–18.698.34–15.4619.18–34.16safer9.75–19.787.38–16.4217.13–36.21
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.126.9516.06safe6.17–12.064.27–9.6310.44–21.69safer5.34–12.893.53–10.368.87–23.25
Blocked shots
51%
15%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.883.297.17safe2.00–5.761.64–4.943.64–10.71safer1.46–6.311.15–5.442.60–11.74
Corners
60%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.804.5010.30safe3.58–8.012.50–6.506.08–14.51safer3.01–8.581.97–7.034.98–15.62
Possession %
44%
51%
homeawayprediction50.0651.43safe43.27–56.8544.65–58.21safer41.60–58.5242.97–59.89
Passes
42%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction387411798safe320–454344–477664–932safer302–473327–495629–967
Pass accuracy %
32%
64%
homeawayprediction66.7569.97safe62.72–70.7865.65–74.30safer61.43–72.0764.34–75.61
Fouls
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0714.8027.87safe10.24–15.9111.85–17.7422.09–33.65safer9.48–16.6711.10–18.4920.58–35.16
Offsides
42%
25%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.571.352.92safe0.41–2.730.26–2.450.67–5.17safer0.10–3.030.00–2.740.08–5.76
Yellow cards
38%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.244.35safe1.06–3.161.11–3.372.17–6.53safer0.79–3.420.82–3.661.61–7.08
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.280.00–0.300.00–0.58safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.86
GK saves
30%
16%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.653.466.12safe1.22–4.091.91–5.023.12–9.11safer0.83–4.481.48–5.442.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.40 0.43–2.37 0.18–2.62 | 1.10 0.24–1.95 0.02–2.18 | 2.50 0.67–4.32 0.19–4.80 | 44% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.88 3.02–6.74 2.53–7.23 | 3.84 2.10–5.58 1.63–6.05 | 8.72 5.12–12.33 4.16–13.28 | 57% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.77 10.84–18.69 9.75–19.78 | 11.90 8.34–15.46 7.38–16.42 | 26.67 19.18–34.16 17.13–36.21 | 68% 26% |
| Shots in box | 9.12 6.17–12.06 5.34–12.89 | 6.95 4.27–9.63 3.53–10.36 | 16.06 10.44–21.69 8.87–23.25 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.88 2.00–5.76 1.46–6.31 | 3.29 1.64–4.94 1.15–5.44 | 7.17 3.64–10.71 2.60–11.74 | 51% 15% 34% |
| Corners | 5.80 3.58–8.01 3.01–8.58 | 4.50 2.50–6.50 1.97–7.03 | 10.30 6.08–14.51 4.98–15.62 | 60% 29% |
| Possession % | 50.06 43.27–56.85 41.60–58.52 | 51.43 44.65–58.21 42.97–59.89 | — | 44% 51% |
| Passes | 387 320–454 302–473 | 411 344–477 327–495 | 798 664–932 629–967 | 42% 58% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.75 62.72–70.78 61.43–72.07 | 69.97 65.65–74.30 64.34–75.61 | — | 32% 64% |
| Fouls | 13.07 10.24–15.91 9.48–16.67 | 14.80 11.85–17.74 11.10–18.49 | 27.87 22.09–33.65 20.58–35.16 | 34% 59% |
| Offsides | 1.57 0.41–2.73 0.10–3.03 | 1.35 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.92 0.67–5.17 0.08–5.76 | 42% 25% 33% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.79–3.42 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.35 2.17–6.53 1.61–7.08 | 38% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 3.46 1.91–5.02 1.48–5.44 | 6.12 3.12–9.11 2.31–9.92 | 30% 16% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.