Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
28%
26%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.071.442.51safe0.10–2.040.59–2.300.69–4.34safer0.00–2.290.36–2.530.21–4.82
Shots on target
30%
13%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction3.634.608.22safe1.76–5.492.86–6.344.62–11.83safer1.27–5.982.39–6.813.66–12.78
Total shots
37%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction11.9113.0024.91safe7.99–15.839.44–16.5717.42–32.40safer6.89–16.938.48–17.5215.37–34.45
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.728.7215.44safe3.77–9.666.04–11.419.82–21.06safer2.94–10.495.31–12.148.25–22.63
Blocked shots
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.773.105.87safe0.89–4.661.44–4.752.34–9.41safer0.35–5.200.95–5.241.30–10.44
Corners
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.714.809.51safe2.50–6.932.80–6.805.30–13.73safer1.93–7.502.27–7.334.19–14.84
Possession %
52%
43%
homeawayprediction50.8649.02safe44.07–57.6542.24–55.81safer42.40–59.3240.57–57.48
Passes
55%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction431414844safe363–498347–480711–978safer345–516330–498675–1014
Pass accuracy %
41%
54%
homeawayprediction69.8671.17safe65.83–73.8966.84–75.49safer64.54–75.1865.54–76.80
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4713.4526.92safe10.64–16.3110.50–16.3921.14–32.71safer9.88–17.079.76–17.1419.64–34.21
Offsides
43%
23%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.771.563.33safe0.61–2.930.47–2.651.08–5.58safer0.31–3.230.18–2.940.49–6.17
Yellow cards
35%
19%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.102.394.48safe1.05–3.151.26–3.522.31–6.66safer0.78–3.410.97–3.811.75–7.22
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.140.25safe0.00–0.270.00–0.330.00–0.60safer0.00–0.420.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
47%
17%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.022.715.74safe1.59–4.461.16–4.272.75–8.73safer1.20–4.850.73–4.691.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.07 0.10–2.04 0.00–2.29 | 1.44 0.59–2.30 0.36–2.53 | 2.51 0.69–4.34 0.21–4.82 | 28% 26% 46% |
| Shots on target | 3.63 1.76–5.49 1.27–5.98 | 4.60 2.86–6.34 2.39–6.81 | 8.22 4.62–11.83 3.66–12.78 | 30% 13% 56% |
| Total shots | 11.91 7.99–15.83 6.89–16.93 | 13.00 9.44–16.57 8.48–17.52 | 24.91 17.42–32.40 15.37–34.45 | 37% 55% |
| Shots in box | 6.72 3.77–9.66 2.94–10.49 | 8.72 6.04–11.41 5.31–12.14 | 15.44 9.82–21.06 8.25–22.63 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 2.77 0.89–4.66 0.35–5.20 | 3.10 1.44–4.75 0.95–5.24 | 5.87 2.34–9.41 1.30–10.44 | 36% 17% 47% |
| Corners | 4.71 2.50–6.93 1.93–7.50 | 4.80 2.80–6.80 2.27–7.33 | 9.51 5.30–13.73 4.19–14.84 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 50.86 44.07–57.65 42.40–59.32 | 49.02 42.24–55.81 40.57–57.48 | — | 52% 43% |
| Passes | 431 363–498 345–516 | 414 347–480 330–498 | 844 711–978 675–1014 | 55% 44% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.86 65.83–73.89 64.54–75.18 | 71.17 66.84–75.49 65.54–76.80 | — | 41% 54% |
| Fouls | 13.47 10.64–16.31 9.88–17.07 | 13.45 10.50–16.39 9.76–17.14 | 26.92 21.14–32.71 19.64–34.21 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.77 0.61–2.93 0.31–3.23 | 1.56 0.47–2.65 0.18–2.94 | 3.33 1.08–5.58 0.49–6.17 | 43% 23% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.10 1.05–3.15 0.78–3.41 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 4.48 2.31–6.66 1.75–7.22 | 35% 19% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.02 1.59–4.46 1.20–4.85 | 2.71 1.16–4.27 0.73–4.69 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 47% 17% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.