Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 18·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.452.60safe0.18–2.120.59–2.300.77–4.42safer0.00–2.370.37–2.530.29–4.90
Shots on target
30%
13%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction3.664.668.32safe1.79–5.522.92–6.404.71–11.92safer1.30–6.012.45–6.873.76–12.88
Total shots
34%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7613.3925.15safe7.84–15.699.83–16.9517.66–32.64safer6.74–16.788.87–17.9115.61–34.69
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.818.7615.57safe3.87–9.756.08–11.449.95–21.19safer3.04–10.585.34–12.188.38–22.76
Blocked shots
39%
16%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction3.103.316.41safe1.22–4.981.66–4.972.88–9.95safer0.67–5.521.17–5.461.84–10.98
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.514.899.40safe2.29–6.722.89–6.895.19–13.61safer1.72–7.292.36–7.424.08–14.72
Possession %
34%
62%
homeawayprediction47.1153.12safe40.31–53.9046.34–59.91safer38.65–55.5644.67–61.58
Passes
29%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction412477889safe345–480410–543756–1023safer327–498393–561720–1059
Pass accuracy %
24%
72%
homeawayprediction70.6075.54safe66.57–74.6371.22–79.87safer65.28–75.9269.91–81.18
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3113.7727.09safe10.48–16.1510.83–16.7221.31–32.87safer9.72–16.9110.08–17.4719.80–34.38
Offsides
41%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.551.412.96safe0.39–2.710.32–2.500.70–5.21safer0.09–3.010.03–2.790.11–5.80
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.154.24safe1.04–3.141.02–3.282.06–6.42safer0.78–3.410.73–3.571.50–6.98
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.54safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
52%
17%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.072.445.52safe1.64–4.510.89–4.002.53–8.51safer1.25–4.900.46–4.421.71–9.32
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.18–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.45 0.59–2.30 0.37–2.53 | 2.60 0.77–4.42 0.29–4.90 | 30% 26% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.66 1.79–5.52 1.30–6.01 | 4.66 2.92–6.40 2.45–6.87 | 8.32 4.71–11.92 3.76–12.88 | 30% 13% 57% |
| Total shots | 11.76 7.84–15.69 6.74–16.78 | 13.39 9.83–16.95 8.87–17.91 | 25.15 17.66–32.64 15.61–34.69 | 34% 59% |
| Shots in box | 6.81 3.87–9.75 3.04–10.58 | 8.76 6.08–11.44 5.34–12.18 | 15.57 9.95–21.19 8.38–22.76 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 3.10 1.22–4.98 0.67–5.52 | 3.31 1.66–4.97 1.17–5.46 | 6.41 2.88–9.95 1.84–10.98 | 39% 16% 45% |
| Corners | 4.51 2.29–6.72 1.72–7.29 | 4.89 2.89–6.89 2.36–7.42 | 9.40 5.19–13.61 4.08–14.72 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 47.11 40.31–53.90 38.65–55.56 | 53.12 46.34–59.91 44.67–61.58 | — | 34% 62% |
| Passes | 412 345–480 327–498 | 477 410–543 393–561 | 889 756–1023 720–1059 | 29% 70% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.60 66.57–74.63 65.28–75.92 | 75.54 71.22–79.87 69.91–81.18 | — | 24% 72% |
| Fouls | 13.31 10.48–16.15 9.72–16.91 | 13.77 10.83–16.72 10.08–17.47 | 27.09 21.31–32.87 19.80–34.38 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.55 0.39–2.71 0.09–3.01 | 1.41 0.32–2.50 0.03–2.79 | 2.96 0.70–5.21 0.11–5.80 | 41% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.78–3.41 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.50–6.98 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.07 1.64–4.51 1.25–4.90 | 2.44 0.89–4.00 0.46–4.42 | 5.52 2.53–8.51 1.71–9.32 | 52% 17% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.