Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
27%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.382.46safe0.12–2.050.52–2.230.64–4.28safer0.00–2.300.29–2.460.16–4.76
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction3.824.258.07safe1.96–5.682.50–5.994.46–11.67safer1.47–6.172.04–6.453.51–12.63
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.1511.3123.47safe8.23–16.087.75–14.8815.98–30.96safer7.14–17.176.79–15.8413.93–33.01
Shots in box
40%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction7.367.8015.16safe4.41–10.305.12–10.489.53–20.78safer3.58–11.134.38–11.227.97–22.35
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.186.45safe1.39–5.151.53–4.842.92–9.99safer0.84–5.691.04–5.331.88–11.02
Corners
47%
13%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction4.734.459.18safe2.52–6.942.45–6.454.97–13.40safer1.94–7.521.92–6.993.86–14.50
Possession %
27%
68%
homeawayprediction45.8554.99safe39.06–52.6448.21–61.78safer37.39–54.3146.54–63.45
Passes
24%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction449535984safe382–517468–601850–1118safer364–535451–618815–1153
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction70.3978.16safe66.36–74.4273.83–82.48safer65.07–75.7172.53–83.79
Fouls
49%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7312.4025.13safe9.89–15.569.46–15.3519.35–30.91safer9.13–16.328.71–16.0917.84–32.41
Offsides
40%
23%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.701.623.32safe0.54–2.860.53–2.721.07–5.58safer0.24–3.160.24–3.000.48–6.17
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.973.93safe0.91–3.010.84–3.101.75–6.11safer0.65–3.280.55–3.391.19–6.67
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.090.17safe0.00–0.240.00–0.270.00–0.51safer0.00–0.390.00–0.410.00–0.80
GK saves
43%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.742.665.41safe1.31–4.181.11–4.222.41–8.40safer0.92–4.570.68–4.641.60–9.21
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.46 0.64–4.28 0.16–4.76 | 30% 27% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.82 1.96–5.68 1.47–6.17 | 4.25 2.50–5.99 2.04–6.45 | 8.07 4.46–11.67 3.51–12.63 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 12.15 8.23–16.08 7.14–17.17 | 11.31 7.75–14.88 6.79–15.84 | 23.47 15.98–30.96 13.93–33.01 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 7.36 4.41–10.30 3.58–11.13 | 7.80 5.12–10.48 4.38–11.22 | 15.16 9.53–20.78 7.97–22.35 | 40% 49% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 3.18 1.53–4.84 1.04–5.33 | 6.45 2.92–9.99 1.88–11.02 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.73 2.52–6.94 1.94–7.52 | 4.45 2.45–6.45 1.92–6.99 | 9.18 4.97–13.40 3.86–14.50 | 47% 13% 40% |
| Possession % | 45.85 39.06–52.64 37.39–54.31 | 54.99 48.21–61.78 46.54–63.45 | — | 27% 68% |
| Passes | 449 382–517 364–535 | 535 468–601 451–618 | 984 850–1118 815–1153 | 24% 76% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.39 66.36–74.42 65.07–75.71 | 78.16 73.83–82.48 72.53–83.79 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.73 9.89–15.56 9.13–16.32 | 12.40 9.46–15.35 8.71–16.09 | 25.13 19.35–30.91 17.84–32.41 | 49% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.70 0.54–2.86 0.24–3.16 | 1.62 0.53–2.72 0.24–3.00 | 3.32 1.07–5.58 0.48–6.17 | 40% 23% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 1.96 0.91–3.01 0.65–3.28 | 1.97 0.84–3.10 0.55–3.39 | 3.93 1.75–6.11 1.19–6.67 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.17 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 2.66 1.11–4.22 0.68–4.64 | 5.41 2.41–8.40 1.60–9.21 | 43% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.