Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.011.502.51safe0.04–1.970.65–2.360.69–4.33safer0.00–2.220.42–2.590.21–4.81
Shots on target
29%
13%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.534.608.13safe1.66–5.392.86–6.344.52–11.73safer1.17–5.882.39–6.813.57–12.69
Total shots
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction10.9912.9223.91safe7.07–14.929.35–16.4816.42–31.40safer5.98–16.018.40–17.4414.37–33.45
Shots in box
25%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.428.4514.87safe3.48–9.365.77–11.139.25–20.50safer2.65–10.195.03–11.877.68–22.06
Blocked shots
27%
15%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.606.22safe0.74–4.501.95–5.252.69–9.76safer0.20–5.051.45–5.751.65–10.79
Corners
27%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.299.27safe1.77–6.203.29–7.295.06–13.49safer1.19–6.772.76–7.823.95–14.59
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.2056.46safe36.41–49.9949.67–63.24safer34.74–51.6648.00–64.91
Passes
25%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction380462842safe313–447396–528708–976safer295–465378–546673–1011
Pass accuracy %
16%
81%
homeawayprediction67.5674.72safe63.53–71.5970.40–79.05safer62.24–72.8869.09–80.36
Fouls
59%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6312.8827.51safe11.79–17.479.94–15.8321.73–33.29safer11.04–18.229.19–16.5820.22–34.80
Offsides
34%
25%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.381.552.93safe0.22–2.540.46–2.640.67–5.18safer0.00–2.840.17–2.930.08–5.77
Yellow cards
45%
19%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction2.402.134.53safe1.35–3.451.01–3.262.35–6.71safer1.08–3.710.71–3.551.79–7.27
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.130.130.25safe0.00–0.290.00–0.320.00–0.60safer0.00–0.440.00–0.450.00–0.88
GK saves
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.222.555.76safe1.78–4.650.99–4.102.77–8.76safer1.39–5.040.57–4.531.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.01 0.04–1.97 0.00–2.22 | 1.50 0.65–2.36 0.42–2.59 | 2.51 0.69–4.33 0.21–4.81 | 25% 26% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.53 1.66–5.39 1.17–5.88 | 4.60 2.86–6.34 2.39–6.81 | 8.13 4.52–11.73 3.57–12.69 | 29% 13% 58% |
| Total shots | 10.99 7.07–14.92 5.98–16.01 | 12.92 9.35–16.48 8.40–17.44 | 23.91 16.42–31.40 14.37–33.45 | 31% 61% |
| Shots in box | 6.42 3.48–9.36 2.65–10.19 | 8.45 5.77–11.13 5.03–11.87 | 14.87 9.25–20.50 7.68–22.06 | 25% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 2.62 0.74–4.50 0.20–5.05 | 3.60 1.95–5.25 1.45–5.75 | 6.22 2.69–9.76 1.65–10.79 | 27% 15% 57% |
| Corners | 3.98 1.77–6.20 1.19–6.77 | 5.29 3.29–7.29 2.76–7.82 | 9.27 5.06–13.49 3.95–14.59 | 27% 60% |
| Possession % | 43.20 36.41–49.99 34.74–51.66 | 56.46 49.67–63.24 48.00–64.91 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 380 313–447 295–465 | 462 396–528 378–546 | 842 708–976 673–1011 | 25% 75% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.56 63.53–71.59 62.24–72.88 | 74.72 70.40–79.05 69.09–80.36 | — | 16% 81% |
| Fouls | 14.63 11.79–17.47 11.04–18.22 | 12.88 9.94–15.83 9.19–16.58 | 27.51 21.73–33.29 20.22–34.80 | 59% 33% |
| Offsides | 1.38 0.22–2.54 0.00–2.84 | 1.55 0.46–2.64 0.17–2.93 | 2.93 0.67–5.18 0.08–5.77 | 34% 25% 42% |
| Yellow cards | 2.40 1.35–3.45 1.08–3.71 | 2.13 1.01–3.26 0.71–3.55 | 4.53 2.35–6.71 1.79–7.27 | 45% 19% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.13 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.44 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.22 1.78–4.65 1.39–5.04 | 2.55 0.99–4.10 0.57–4.53 | 5.76 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 53% 16% 31% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.