Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
31%
28%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.061.292.35safe0.09–2.030.43–2.140.53–4.17safer0.00–2.280.20–2.370.05–4.65
Shots on target
40%
14%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.014.208.21safe2.15–5.872.46–5.944.61–11.82safer1.66–6.361.99–6.413.65–12.77
Total shots
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3612.4724.83safe8.44–16.288.91–16.0417.35–32.32safer7.34–17.387.95–17.0015.30–34.37
Shots in box
40%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction7.588.0415.62safe4.64–10.525.36–10.7210.00–21.25safer3.81–11.354.62–11.468.43–22.81
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.126.34safe1.33–5.091.47–4.782.80–9.87safer0.79–5.640.98–5.271.77–10.91
Corners
39%
13%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction4.344.699.04safe2.13–6.562.69–6.694.82–13.25safer1.56–7.132.16–7.233.72–14.36
Possession %
21%
75%
homeawayprediction44.0456.54safe37.25–50.8349.76–63.33safer35.58–52.5048.09–65.00
Passes
20%
80%
homeawaytotalprediction369470839safe301–436404–536705–972safer283–454386–554669–1008
Pass accuracy %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction67.2274.79safe63.19–71.2570.47–79.12safer61.90–72.5569.16–80.42
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7714.7528.52safe10.93–16.6111.81–17.7022.74–34.31safer10.18–17.3611.06–18.4521.24–35.81
Offsides
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.692.103.79safe0.53–2.851.00–3.191.54–6.04safer0.23–3.150.71–3.480.95–6.63
Yellow cards
35%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.432.775.20safe1.38–3.481.64–3.903.02–7.38safer1.12–3.751.35–4.192.47–7.94
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.140.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.330.00–0.63safer0.00–0.450.00–0.460.00–0.92
GK saves
42%
17%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.892.835.72safe1.45–4.321.27–4.392.73–8.71safer1.06–4.710.85–4.811.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.06 0.09–2.03 0.00–2.28 | 1.29 0.43–2.14 0.20–2.37 | 2.35 0.53–4.17 0.05–4.65 | 31% 28% 42% |
| Shots on target | 4.01 2.15–5.87 1.66–6.36 | 4.20 2.46–5.94 1.99–6.41 | 8.21 4.61–11.82 3.65–12.77 | 40% 14% 46% |
| Total shots | 12.36 8.44–16.28 7.34–17.38 | 12.47 8.91–16.04 7.95–17.00 | 24.83 17.35–32.32 15.30–34.37 | 45% 47% |
| Shots in box | 7.58 4.64–10.52 3.81–11.35 | 8.04 5.36–10.72 4.62–11.46 | 15.62 10.00–21.25 8.43–22.81 | 40% 50% |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 1.33–5.09 0.79–5.64 | 3.12 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 6.34 2.80–9.87 1.77–10.91 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.34 2.13–6.56 1.56–7.13 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.23 | 9.04 4.82–13.25 3.72–14.36 | 39% 13% 48% |
| Possession % | 44.04 37.25–50.83 35.58–52.50 | 56.54 49.76–63.33 48.09–65.00 | — | 21% 75% |
| Passes | 369 301–436 283–454 | 470 404–536 386–554 | 839 705–972 669–1008 | 20% 80% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.22 63.19–71.25 61.90–72.55 | 74.79 70.47–79.12 69.16–80.42 | — | 15% 82% |
| Fouls | 13.77 10.93–16.61 10.18–17.36 | 14.75 11.81–17.70 11.06–18.45 | 28.52 22.74–34.31 21.24–35.81 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.69 0.53–2.85 0.23–3.15 | 2.10 1.00–3.19 0.71–3.48 | 3.79 1.54–6.04 0.95–6.63 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.43 1.38–3.48 1.12–3.75 | 2.77 1.64–3.90 1.35–4.19 | 5.20 3.02–7.38 2.47–7.94 | 35% 18% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.29 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.92 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.89 1.45–4.32 1.06–4.71 | 2.83 1.27–4.39 0.85–4.81 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 42% 17% 41% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.