Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
50%
26%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.520.962.48safe0.55–2.490.11–1.810.65–4.30safer0.30–2.740.00–2.040.17–4.78
Shots on target
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.772.887.65safe2.91–6.641.13–4.624.05–11.26safer2.42–7.130.67–5.083.09–12.21
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction15.079.3224.39safe11.15–18.995.76–12.8816.90–31.88safer10.05–20.094.80–13.8414.85–33.93
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction9.545.3414.88safe6.59–12.482.66–8.029.25–20.50safer5.76–13.311.92–8.767.69–22.07
Blocked shots
67%
13%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction4.032.416.44safe2.15–5.920.76–4.062.91–9.98safer1.61–6.460.27–4.561.87–11.02
Corners
67%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.613.799.39safe3.40–7.821.79–5.795.18–13.61safer2.82–8.401.25–6.324.07–14.72
Possession %
55%
41%
homeawayprediction51.4148.41safe44.62–58.2041.62–55.19safer42.95–59.8739.95–56.86
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction442410852safe375–509344–476719–986safer357–528326–494683–1022
Pass accuracy %
49%
46%
homeawayprediction70.2570.02safe66.22–74.2865.69–74.34safer64.93–75.5764.39–75.65
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4313.5927.02safe10.59–16.2610.65–16.5421.24–32.80safer9.83–17.029.90–17.2919.73–34.31
Offsides
36%
24%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.521.643.16safe0.36–2.680.54–2.730.90–5.41safer0.06–2.980.26–3.020.31–6.00
Yellow cards
31%
20%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.213.96safe0.70–2.801.08–3.341.78–6.13safer0.43–3.060.79–3.631.22–6.69
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.130.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.123.175.29safe0.68–3.551.61–4.732.30–8.28safer0.29–3.941.19–5.151.48–9.09
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.52 0.55–2.49 0.30–2.74 | 0.96 0.11–1.81 0.00–2.04 | 2.48 0.65–4.30 0.17–4.78 | 50% 26% 24% |
| Shots on target | 4.77 2.91–6.64 2.42–7.13 | 2.88 1.13–4.62 0.67–5.08 | 7.65 4.05–11.26 3.09–12.21 | 69% 19% |
| Total shots | 15.07 11.15–18.99 10.05–20.09 | 9.32 5.76–12.88 4.80–13.84 | 24.39 16.90–31.88 14.85–33.93 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 6.59–12.48 5.76–13.31 | 5.34 2.66–8.02 1.92–8.76 | 14.88 9.25–20.50 7.69–22.07 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.03 2.15–5.92 1.61–6.46 | 2.41 0.76–4.06 0.27–4.56 | 6.44 2.91–9.98 1.87–11.02 | 67% 13% 20% |
| Corners | 5.61 3.40–7.82 2.82–8.40 | 3.79 1.79–5.79 1.25–6.32 | 9.39 5.18–13.61 4.07–14.72 | 67% 22% |
| Possession % | 51.41 44.62–58.20 42.95–59.87 | 48.41 41.62–55.19 39.95–56.86 | — | 55% 41% |
| Passes | 442 375–509 357–528 | 410 344–476 326–494 | 852 719–986 683–1022 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.25 66.22–74.28 64.93–75.57 | 70.02 65.69–74.34 64.39–75.65 | — | 49% 46% |
| Fouls | 13.43 10.59–16.26 9.83–17.02 | 13.59 10.65–16.54 9.90–17.29 | 27.02 21.24–32.80 19.73–34.31 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.68 0.06–2.98 | 1.64 0.54–2.73 0.26–3.02 | 3.16 0.90–5.41 0.31–6.00 | 36% 24% 41% |
| Yellow cards | 1.75 0.70–2.80 0.43–3.06 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 3.96 1.78–6.13 1.22–6.69 | 31% 20% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.12 0.68–3.55 0.29–3.94 | 3.17 1.61–4.73 1.19–5.15 | 5.29 2.30–8.28 1.48–9.09 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+