Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 19·Predicted match statistics
Goals
14%
20%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction0.852.072.93safe0.00–1.821.22–2.931.10–4.75safer0.00–2.070.99–3.160.62–5.23
Shots on target
14%
78%
homeawaytotalprediction3.256.049.28safe1.38–5.114.29–7.785.68–12.89safer0.89–5.603.83–8.244.72–13.84
Total shots
14%
81%
homeawaytotalprediction10.2615.2025.46safe6.33–14.1811.64–18.7617.97–32.94safer5.24–15.2810.68–19.7215.92–35.00
Shots in box
88%
homeawaytotalprediction5.6910.9216.60safe2.75–8.638.23–13.6010.98–22.23safer1.92–9.467.50–14.339.41–23.79
Blocked shots
26%
14%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.054.297.34safe1.17–4.932.64–5.953.81–10.88safer0.62–5.472.15–6.442.77–11.91
Corners
24%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction3.485.048.52safe1.26–5.693.04–7.044.30–12.73safer0.69–6.272.51–7.573.20–13.84
Possession %
91%
homeawayprediction38.0561.80safe31.26–44.8455.01–68.58safer29.59–46.5153.34–70.25
Passes
96%
homeawaytotalprediction354558912safe287–421492–625779–1046safer269–439474–642743–1082
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction68.5580.76safe64.52–72.5876.44–85.08safer63.23–73.8775.13–86.39
Fouls
69%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction15.0112.0027.01safe12.17–17.859.06–14.9521.23–32.80safer11.42–18.608.31–15.7019.73–34.30
Offsides
23%
20%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction1.412.293.71safe0.25–2.571.20–3.391.45–5.96safer0.00–2.870.91–3.680.86–6.55
Yellow cards
58%
17%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.055.06safe1.95–4.050.92–3.182.88–7.23safer1.69–4.320.63–3.472.32–7.79
Red cards
17%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.210.110.32safe0.05–0.370.00–0.300.00–0.67safer0.00–0.520.00–0.430.00–0.95
GK saves
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.366.09safe2.30–5.170.81–3.923.10–9.09safer1.91–5.560.38–4.342.29–9.90
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.85 0.00–1.82 0.00–2.07 | 2.07 1.22–2.93 0.99–3.16 | 2.93 1.10–4.75 0.62–5.23 | 14% 20% 66% |
| Shots on target | 3.25 1.38–5.11 0.89–5.60 | 6.04 4.29–7.78 3.83–8.24 | 9.28 5.68–12.89 4.72–13.84 | 14% 78% |
| Total shots | 10.26 6.33–14.18 5.24–15.28 | 15.20 11.64–18.76 10.68–19.72 | 25.46 17.97–32.94 15.92–35.00 | 14% 81% |
| Shots in box | 5.69 2.75–8.63 1.92–9.46 | 10.92 8.23–13.60 7.50–14.33 | 16.60 10.98–22.23 9.41–23.79 | 88% |
| Blocked shots | 3.05 1.17–4.93 0.62–5.47 | 4.29 2.64–5.95 2.15–6.44 | 7.34 3.81–10.88 2.77–11.91 | 26% 14% 61% |
| Corners | 3.48 1.26–5.69 0.69–6.27 | 5.04 3.04–7.04 2.51–7.57 | 8.52 4.30–12.73 3.20–13.84 | 24% 64% |
| Possession % | 38.05 31.26–44.84 29.59–46.51 | 61.80 55.01–68.58 53.34–70.25 | — | 91% |
| Passes | 354 287–421 269–439 | 558 492–625 474–642 | 912 779–1046 743–1082 | 96% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.55 64.52–72.58 63.23–73.87 | 80.76 76.44–85.08 75.13–86.39 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 15.01 12.17–17.85 11.42–18.60 | 12.00 9.06–14.95 8.31–15.70 | 27.01 21.23–32.80 19.73–34.30 | 69% 25% |
| Offsides | 1.41 0.25–2.57 0.00–2.87 | 2.29 1.20–3.39 0.91–3.68 | 3.71 1.45–5.96 0.86–6.55 | 23% 20% 57% |
| Yellow cards | 3.00 1.95–4.05 1.69–4.32 | 2.05 0.92–3.18 0.63–3.47 | 5.06 2.88–7.23 2.32–7.79 | 58% 17% 26% |
| Red cards | 0.21 0.05–0.37 0.00–0.52 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.32 0.00–0.67 0.00–0.95 | 17% 74% |
| GK saves | 3.73 2.30–5.17 1.91–5.56 | 2.36 0.81–3.92 0.38–4.34 | 6.09 3.10–9.09 2.29–9.90 | 64% 14% 22% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.