Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.261.112.37safe0.29–2.230.25–1.960.54–4.19safer0.04–2.480.03–2.190.07–4.67
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.383.888.26safe2.52–6.242.14–5.624.65–11.86safer2.03–6.731.67–6.093.70–12.82
Total shots
50%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0012.4825.48safe9.08–16.938.92–16.0417.99–32.97safer7.99–18.027.96–17.0015.94–35.02
Shots in box
48%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction7.527.2314.75safe4.58–10.464.55–9.919.13–20.37safer3.75–11.293.81–10.657.56–21.94
Blocked shots
46%
16%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.222.966.17safe1.33–5.101.30–4.612.64–9.71safer0.79–5.640.81–5.101.60–10.74
Corners
51%
13%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.954.379.32safe2.74–7.162.37–6.375.11–13.54safer2.16–7.741.84–6.914.00–14.64
Possession %
64%
32%
homeawayprediction53.7746.69safe46.98–60.5639.91–53.48safer45.31–62.2338.24–55.15
Passes
72%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction463394857safe396–531328–461724–991safer378–549310–478688–1027
Pass accuracy %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction71.0970.03safe67.06–75.1265.70–74.35safer65.77–76.4164.39–75.66
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7514.7827.52safe9.91–15.5811.83–17.7221.74–33.31safer9.15–16.3411.08–18.4720.24–34.81
Offsides
43%
24%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.362.97safe0.45–2.770.26–2.450.71–5.22safer0.15–3.070.00–2.740.12–5.81
Yellow cards
35%
20%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.314.34safe0.98–3.081.18–3.432.16–6.51safer0.72–3.350.89–3.731.60–7.07
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.743.095.84safe1.31–4.181.54–4.652.84–8.83safer0.92–4.571.11–5.082.03–9.64
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.26 0.29–2.23 0.04–2.48 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.03–2.19 | 2.37 0.54–4.19 0.07–4.67 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.38 2.52–6.24 2.03–6.73 | 3.88 2.14–5.62 1.67–6.09 | 8.26 4.65–11.86 3.70–12.82 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.00 9.08–16.93 7.99–18.02 | 12.48 8.92–16.04 7.96–17.00 | 25.48 17.99–32.97 15.94–35.02 | 50% 42% |
| Shots in box | 7.52 4.58–10.46 3.75–11.29 | 7.23 4.55–9.91 3.81–10.65 | 14.75 9.13–20.37 7.56–21.94 | 48% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.33–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 2.96 1.30–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 6.17 2.64–9.71 1.60–10.74 | 46% 16% 38% |
| Corners | 4.95 2.74–7.16 2.16–7.74 | 4.37 2.37–6.37 1.84–6.91 | 9.32 5.11–13.54 4.00–14.64 | 51% 13% 36% |
| Possession % | 53.77 46.98–60.56 45.31–62.23 | 46.69 39.91–53.48 38.24–55.15 | — | 64% 32% |
| Passes | 463 396–531 378–549 | 394 328–461 310–478 | 857 724–991 688–1027 | 72% 28% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.09 67.06–75.12 65.77–76.41 | 70.03 65.70–74.35 64.39–75.66 | — | 53% 42% |
| Fouls | 12.75 9.91–15.58 9.15–16.34 | 14.78 11.83–17.72 11.08–18.47 | 27.52 21.74–33.31 20.24–34.81 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.97 0.71–5.22 0.12–5.81 | 43% 24% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.72–3.35 | 2.31 1.18–3.43 0.89–3.73 | 4.34 2.16–6.51 1.60–7.07 | 35% 20% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.74 1.31–4.18 0.92–4.57 | 3.09 1.54–4.65 1.11–5.08 | 5.84 2.84–8.83 2.03–9.64 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.