Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
16%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction0.722.373.09safe0.00–1.691.51–3.221.27–4.91safer0.00–1.941.28–3.450.79–5.39
Shots on target
89%
homeawaytotalprediction2.226.298.51safe0.36–4.094.55–8.034.91–12.12safer0.00–4.584.08–8.503.95–13.07
Total shots
96%
homeawaytotalprediction7.9416.7924.73safe4.02–11.8613.22–20.3517.24–32.21safer2.92–12.9612.27–21.3115.19–34.27
Shots in box
95%
homeawaytotalprediction4.3811.0315.41safe1.43–7.328.35–13.719.78–21.03safer0.60–8.157.61–14.458.22–22.60
Blocked shots
77%
homeawaytotalprediction2.344.797.12safe0.45–4.223.13–6.443.59–10.66safer0.00–4.762.64–6.932.55–11.69
Corners
82%
homeawaytotalprediction2.805.968.76safe0.59–5.023.96–7.964.55–12.98safer0.02–5.593.43–8.493.44–14.08
Possession %
98%
homeawayprediction33.0767.74safe26.28–39.8660.95–74.52safer24.61–41.5359.28–76.19
Passes
100%
homeawaytotalprediction314625939safe247–381558–691805–1072safer228–399541–709769–1108
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction64.7882.93safe60.75–68.8178.61–87.25safer59.46–70.1077.30–88.56
Fouls
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction14.7812.0526.83safe11.94–17.629.11–15.0021.05–32.61safer11.18–18.378.36–15.7519.54–34.12
Offsides
32%
24%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.401.673.07safe0.24–2.560.58–2.760.82–5.32safer0.00–2.860.29–3.050.23–5.91
Yellow cards
55%
18%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction2.591.784.38safe1.54–3.640.65–2.912.20–6.55safer1.28–3.910.36–3.201.64–7.11
Red cards
16%
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.190.090.27safe0.03–0.350.00–0.270.00–0.62safer0.00–0.500.00–0.410.00–0.90
GK saves
75%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction3.981.895.87safe2.54–5.420.33–3.442.87–8.86safer2.16–5.800.00–3.872.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.72 0.00–1.69 0.00–1.94 | 2.37 1.51–3.22 1.28–3.45 | 3.09 1.27–4.91 0.79–5.39 | 16% 74% |
| Shots on target | 2.22 0.36–4.09 0.00–4.58 | 6.29 4.55–8.03 4.08–8.50 | 8.51 4.91–12.12 3.95–13.07 | 89% |
| Total shots | 7.94 4.02–11.86 2.92–12.96 | 16.79 13.22–20.35 12.27–21.31 | 24.73 17.24–32.21 15.19–34.27 | 96% |
| Shots in box | 4.38 1.43–7.32 0.60–8.15 | 11.03 8.35–13.71 7.61–14.45 | 15.41 9.78–21.03 8.22–22.60 | 95% |
| Blocked shots | 2.34 0.45–4.22 0.00–4.76 | 4.79 3.13–6.44 2.64–6.93 | 7.12 3.59–10.66 2.55–11.69 | 77% |
| Corners | 2.80 0.59–5.02 0.02–5.59 | 5.96 3.96–7.96 3.43–8.49 | 8.76 4.55–12.98 3.44–14.08 | 82% |
| Possession % | 33.07 26.28–39.86 24.61–41.53 | 67.74 60.95–74.52 59.28–76.19 | — | 98% |
| Passes | 314 247–381 228–399 | 625 558–691 541–709 | 939 805–1072 769–1108 | 100% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.78 60.75–68.81 59.46–70.10 | 82.93 78.61–87.25 77.30–88.56 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 14.78 11.94–17.62 11.18–18.37 | 12.05 9.11–15.00 8.36–15.75 | 26.83 21.05–32.61 19.54–34.12 | 67% 27% |
| Offsides | 1.40 0.24–2.56 0.00–2.86 | 1.67 0.58–2.76 0.29–3.05 | 3.07 0.82–5.32 0.23–5.91 | 32% 24% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.59 1.54–3.64 1.28–3.91 | 1.78 0.65–2.91 0.36–3.20 | 4.38 2.20–6.55 1.64–7.11 | 55% 18% 26% |
| Red cards | 0.19 0.03–0.35 0.00–0.50 | 0.09 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.41 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 16% 77% |
| GK saves | 3.98 2.54–5.42 2.16–5.80 | 1.89 0.33–3.44 0.00–3.87 | 5.87 2.87–8.86 2.06–9.67 | 75% 14% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.