Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
30%
26%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction1.151.432.58safe0.19–2.120.57–2.280.76–4.40safer0.00–2.370.34–2.510.28–4.88
Shots on target
37%
14%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.174.628.79safe2.30–6.032.88–6.365.18–12.39safer1.82–6.522.41–6.834.23–13.35
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3213.2826.60safe9.39–17.249.72–16.8519.11–34.09safer8.30–18.338.76–17.8117.06–36.14
Shots in box
37%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction8.088.9917.06safe5.14–11.026.31–11.6711.44–22.69safer4.31–11.855.57–12.409.87–24.25
Blocked shots
48%
15%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction3.743.387.11safe1.85–5.621.72–5.033.58–10.65safer1.31–6.161.23–5.522.54–11.68
Corners
46%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction5.104.9410.04safe2.89–7.312.94–6.945.82–14.25safer2.31–7.892.40–7.474.72–15.36
Possession %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction43.5457.07safe36.75–50.3350.29–63.85safer35.08–52.0048.61–65.53
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction355478834safe288–423412–545700–967safer270–441394–562664–1003
Pass accuracy %
85%
homeawayprediction65.0673.57safe61.03–69.0969.24–77.89safer59.74–70.3867.94–79.20
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4613.8827.34safe10.62–16.2910.94–16.8221.56–33.12safer9.86–17.0510.19–17.5720.05–34.62
Offsides
40%
24%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.422.95safe0.38–2.700.33–2.510.70–5.21safer0.07–3.000.04–2.800.11–5.80
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.032.144.17safe0.98–3.081.01–3.271.99–6.34safer0.71–3.340.72–3.561.43–6.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
48%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.062.685.74safe1.62–4.501.12–4.242.75–8.73safer1.24–4.880.70–4.661.94–9.55
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.15 0.19–2.12 0.00–2.37 | 1.43 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 30% 26% 43% |
| Shots on target | 4.17 2.30–6.03 1.82–6.52 | 4.62 2.88–6.36 2.41–6.83 | 8.79 5.18–12.39 4.23–13.35 | 37% 14% 49% |
| Total shots | 13.32 9.39–17.24 8.30–18.33 | 13.28 9.72–16.85 8.76–17.81 | 26.60 19.11–34.09 17.06–36.14 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 8.08 5.14–11.02 4.31–11.85 | 8.99 6.31–11.67 5.57–12.40 | 17.06 11.44–22.69 9.87–24.25 | 37% 54% |
| Blocked shots | 3.74 1.85–5.62 1.31–6.16 | 3.38 1.72–5.03 1.23–5.52 | 7.11 3.58–10.65 2.54–11.68 | 48% 15% 37% |
| Corners | 5.10 2.89–7.31 2.31–7.89 | 4.94 2.94–6.94 2.40–7.47 | 10.04 5.82–14.25 4.72–15.36 | 46% 42% |
| Possession % | 43.54 36.75–50.33 35.08–52.00 | 57.07 50.29–63.85 48.61–65.53 | — | 20% 77% |
| Passes | 355 288–423 270–441 | 478 412–545 394–562 | 834 700–967 664–1003 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 65.06 61.03–69.09 59.74–70.38 | 73.57 69.24–77.89 67.94–79.20 | — | 85% |
| Fouls | 13.46 10.62–16.29 9.86–17.05 | 13.88 10.94–16.82 10.19–17.57 | 27.34 21.56–33.12 20.05–34.62 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.07–3.00 | 1.42 0.33–2.51 0.04–2.80 | 2.95 0.70–5.21 0.11–5.80 | 40% 24% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.03 0.98–3.08 0.71–3.34 | 2.14 1.01–3.27 0.72–3.56 | 4.17 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.06 1.62–4.50 1.24–4.88 | 2.68 1.12–4.24 0.70–4.66 | 5.74 2.75–8.73 1.94–9.55 | 48% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+