Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
47%
27%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.420.982.41safe0.45–2.390.13–1.840.58–4.23safer0.20–2.640.00–2.070.10–4.71
Shots on target
58%
14%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction4.483.417.89safe2.62–6.341.67–5.154.28–11.49safer2.13–6.831.20–5.623.33–12.45
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9810.5024.49safe10.06–17.916.94–14.0717.00–31.98safer8.97–19.005.98–15.0314.95–34.03
Shots in box
58%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction8.357.0415.38safe5.40–11.294.36–9.729.76–21.01safer4.57–12.123.62–10.468.19–22.57
Blocked shots
61%
15%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.382.215.60safe1.50–5.260.56–3.872.06–9.13safer0.96–5.810.07–4.361.03–10.17
Corners
70%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction5.993.869.86safe3.78–8.211.86–5.865.64–14.07safer3.21–8.781.33–6.404.54–15.18
Possession %
77%
19%
homeawayprediction56.5742.95safe49.78–63.3636.17–49.74safer48.11–65.0334.50–51.41
Passes
83%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction476360836safe409–544293–426703–970safer391–562276–444667–1006
Pass accuracy %
68%
27%
homeawayprediction73.5669.37safe69.53–77.5965.04–73.69safer68.24–78.8863.73–75.00
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5215.5529.07safe10.68–16.3612.60–18.4923.29–34.85safer9.93–17.1111.86–19.2421.78–36.36
Offsides
51%
23%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.871.293.16safe0.71–3.030.19–2.380.90–5.41safer0.41–3.330.00–2.670.31–6.00
Yellow cards
29%
18%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.764.85safe1.04–3.141.63–3.892.67–7.03safer0.77–3.411.34–4.182.11–7.58
Red cards
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.160.29safe0.00–0.300.00–0.350.00–0.64safer0.00–0.450.00–0.480.00–0.92
GK saves
31%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.433.055.48safe0.99–3.871.49–4.612.49–8.47safer0.61–4.251.07–5.031.67–9.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.42 0.45–2.39 0.20–2.64 | 0.98 0.13–1.84 0.00–2.07 | 2.41 0.58–4.23 0.10–4.71 | 47% 27% 26% |
| Shots on target | 4.48 2.62–6.34 2.13–6.83 | 3.41 1.67–5.15 1.20–5.62 | 7.89 4.28–11.49 3.33–12.45 | 58% 14% 29% |
| Total shots | 13.98 10.06–17.91 8.97–19.00 | 10.50 6.94–14.07 5.98–15.03 | 24.49 17.00–31.98 14.95–34.03 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 8.35 5.40–11.29 4.57–12.12 | 7.04 4.36–9.72 3.62–10.46 | 15.38 9.76–21.01 8.19–22.57 | 58% 32% |
| Blocked shots | 3.38 1.50–5.26 0.96–5.81 | 2.21 0.56–3.87 0.07–4.36 | 5.60 2.06–9.13 1.03–10.17 | 61% 15% 24% |
| Corners | 5.99 3.78–8.21 3.21–8.78 | 3.86 1.86–5.86 1.33–6.40 | 9.86 5.64–14.07 4.54–15.18 | 70% 20% |
| Possession % | 56.57 49.78–63.36 48.11–65.03 | 42.95 36.17–49.74 34.50–51.41 | — | 77% 19% |
| Passes | 476 409–544 391–562 | 360 293–426 276–444 | 836 703–970 667–1006 | 83% 16% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.56 69.53–77.59 68.24–78.88 | 69.37 65.04–73.69 63.73–75.00 | — | 68% 27% |
| Fouls | 13.52 10.68–16.36 9.93–17.11 | 15.55 12.60–18.49 11.86–19.24 | 29.07 23.29–34.85 21.78–36.36 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.87 0.71–3.03 0.41–3.33 | 1.29 0.19–2.38 0.00–2.67 | 3.16 0.90–5.41 0.31–6.00 | 51% 23% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.41 | 2.76 1.63–3.89 1.34–4.18 | 4.85 2.67–7.03 2.11–7.58 | 29% 18% 53% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% |
| GK saves | 2.43 0.99–3.87 0.61–4.25 | 3.05 1.49–4.61 1.07–5.03 | 5.48 2.49–8.47 1.67–9.28 | 31% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.