Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 20·Predicted match statistics
Goals
19%
23%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction0.911.762.68safe0.00–1.880.91–2.620.85–4.50safer0.00–2.130.68–2.840.37–4.98
Shots on target
21%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction3.615.559.16safe1.74–5.473.81–7.295.55–12.76safer1.25–5.963.34–7.764.60–13.72
Total shots
23%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7815.1926.97safe7.86–15.7011.63–18.7519.48–34.46safer6.76–16.8010.67–19.7117.43–36.51
Shots in box
19%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction6.529.5416.06safe3.58–9.466.86–12.2210.44–21.68safer2.75–10.296.12–12.968.87–23.25
Blocked shots
30%
15%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.863.686.54safe0.98–4.742.03–5.343.01–10.08safer0.43–5.281.54–5.831.97–11.11
Corners
23%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction4.105.9210.02safe1.89–6.313.92–7.925.80–14.23safer1.31–6.893.39–8.454.70–15.34
Possession %
27%
69%
homeawayprediction45.2254.65safe38.43–52.0147.86–61.43safer36.76–53.6846.19–63.10
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction401446847safe334–468380–513713–981safer315–486362–530678–1016
Pass accuracy %
22%
74%
homeawayprediction68.7474.12safe64.71–72.7769.79–78.44safer63.42–74.0768.48–79.75
Fouls
24%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2614.3025.56safe8.42–14.1011.35–17.2419.78–31.34safer7.67–14.8610.60–17.9918.27–32.84
Offsides
43%
22%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.911.713.63safe0.75–3.070.62–2.811.37–5.88safer0.45–3.380.33–3.090.78–6.47
Yellow cards
27%
19%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction1.792.524.31safe0.74–2.831.39–3.652.13–6.48safer0.47–3.101.10–3.941.57–7.04
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.150.26safe0.00–0.270.00–0.340.00–0.61safer0.00–0.420.00–0.470.00–0.89
GK saves
58%
15%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.562.556.11safe2.12–4.991.00–4.113.12–9.10safer1.73–5.380.57–4.542.31–9.92
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.91 0.00–1.88 0.00–2.13 | 1.76 0.91–2.62 0.68–2.84 | 2.68 0.85–4.50 0.37–4.98 | 19% 23% 57% |
| Shots on target | 3.61 1.74–5.47 1.25–5.96 | 5.55 3.81–7.29 3.34–7.76 | 9.16 5.55–12.76 4.60–13.72 | 21% 68% |
| Total shots | 11.78 7.86–15.70 6.76–16.80 | 15.19 11.63–18.75 10.67–19.71 | 26.97 19.48–34.46 17.43–36.51 | 23% 71% |
| Shots in box | 6.52 3.58–9.46 2.75–10.29 | 9.54 6.86–12.22 6.12–12.96 | 16.06 10.44–21.68 8.87–23.25 | 19% 74% |
| Blocked shots | 2.86 0.98–4.74 0.43–5.28 | 3.68 2.03–5.34 1.54–5.83 | 6.54 3.01–10.08 1.97–11.11 | 30% 15% 55% |
| Corners | 4.10 1.89–6.31 1.31–6.89 | 5.92 3.92–7.92 3.39–8.45 | 10.02 5.80–14.23 4.70–15.34 | 23% 66% |
| Possession % | 45.22 38.43–52.01 36.76–53.68 | 54.65 47.86–61.43 46.19–63.10 | — | 27% 69% |
| Passes | 401 334–468 315–486 | 446 380–513 362–530 | 847 713–981 678–1016 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.74 64.71–72.77 63.42–74.07 | 74.12 69.79–78.44 68.48–79.75 | — | 22% 74% |
| Fouls | 11.26 8.42–14.10 7.67–14.86 | 14.30 11.35–17.24 10.60–17.99 | 25.56 19.78–31.34 18.27–32.84 | 24% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.91 0.75–3.07 0.45–3.38 | 1.71 0.62–2.81 0.33–3.09 | 3.63 1.37–5.88 0.78–6.47 | 43% 22% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 1.79 0.74–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 2.52 1.39–3.65 1.10–3.94 | 4.31 2.13–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 27% 19% 54% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.15 0.00–0.34 0.00–0.47 | 0.26 0.00–0.61 0.00–0.89 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.56 2.12–4.99 1.73–5.38 | 2.55 1.00–4.11 0.57–4.54 | 6.11 3.12–9.10 2.31–9.92 | 58% 15% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.