Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
78%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction2.440.623.05safe1.47–3.410.00–1.471.23–4.88safer1.22–3.660.00–1.700.75–5.36
Shots on target
90%
homeawaytotalprediction6.842.529.36safe4.98–8.700.78–4.265.76–12.97safer4.49–9.190.31–4.734.80–13.92
Total shots
98%
homeawaytotalprediction18.847.6726.51safe14.91–22.764.11–11.2319.02–33.99safer13.82–23.853.15–12.1916.97–36.04
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction12.804.4117.21safe9.86–15.741.73–7.0911.59–22.84safer9.03–16.570.99–7.8310.02–24.40
Blocked shots
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.062.097.15safe3.17–6.940.44–3.753.61–10.68safer2.63–7.480.00–4.242.58–11.72
Corners
88%
homeawaytotalprediction7.082.889.95safe4.86–9.290.88–4.885.74–14.17safer4.29–9.860.34–5.414.63–15.27
Possession %
86%
homeawayprediction59.8940.47safe53.09–66.6833.69–47.26safer51.43–68.3532.02–48.93
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction531363895safe464–598297–430761–1028safer446–617279–447725–1064
Pass accuracy %
78%
18%
homeawayprediction75.7069.23safe71.67–79.7364.90–73.55safer70.38–81.0263.59–74.86
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8812.8925.77safe10.04–15.719.95–15.8419.99–31.55safer9.28–16.479.20–16.5918.48–33.06
Offsides
53%
24%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.761.102.86safe0.60–2.920.01–2.190.60–5.11safer0.29–3.220.00–2.480.01–5.70
Yellow cards
22%
20%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction1.322.243.56safe0.27–2.371.12–3.371.38–5.74safer0.00–2.630.82–3.660.83–6.30
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.140.20safe0.00–0.220.00–0.330.00–0.55safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.83
GK saves
13%
75%
homeawaytotalprediction1.954.136.08safe0.52–3.392.57–5.683.09–9.08safer0.13–3.782.15–6.112.28–9.89
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.44 1.47–3.41 1.22–3.66 | 0.62 0.00–1.47 0.00–1.70 | 3.05 1.23–4.88 0.75–5.36 | 78% 15% |
| Shots on target | 6.84 4.98–8.70 4.49–9.19 | 2.52 0.78–4.26 0.31–4.73 | 9.36 5.76–12.97 4.80–13.92 | 90% |
| Total shots | 18.84 14.91–22.76 13.82–23.85 | 7.67 4.11–11.23 3.15–12.19 | 26.51 19.02–33.99 16.97–36.04 | 98% |
| Shots in box | 12.80 9.86–15.74 9.03–16.57 | 4.41 1.73–7.09 0.99–7.83 | 17.21 11.59–22.84 10.02–24.40 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 5.06 3.17–6.94 2.63–7.48 | 2.09 0.44–3.75 0.00–4.24 | 7.15 3.61–10.68 2.58–11.72 | 82% |
| Corners | 7.08 4.86–9.29 4.29–9.86 | 2.88 0.88–4.88 0.34–5.41 | 9.95 5.74–14.17 4.63–15.27 | 88% |
| Possession % | 59.89 53.09–66.68 51.43–68.35 | 40.47 33.69–47.26 32.02–48.93 | — | 86% |
| Passes | 531 464–598 446–617 | 363 297–430 279–447 | 895 761–1028 725–1064 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 75.70 71.67–79.73 70.38–81.02 | 69.23 64.90–73.55 63.59–74.86 | — | 78% 18% |
| Fouls | 12.88 10.04–15.71 9.28–16.47 | 12.89 9.95–15.84 9.20–16.59 | 25.77 19.99–31.55 18.48–33.06 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.76 0.60–2.92 0.29–3.22 | 1.10 0.01–2.19 0.00–2.48 | 2.86 0.60–5.11 0.01–5.70 | 53% 24% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.32 0.27–2.37 0.00–2.63 | 2.24 1.12–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 3.56 1.38–5.74 0.83–6.30 | 22% 20% 58% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 82% |
| GK saves | 1.95 0.52–3.39 0.13–3.78 | 4.13 2.57–5.68 2.15–6.11 | 6.08 3.09–9.08 2.28–9.89 | 13% 75% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+