Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.202.44safe0.27–2.210.35–2.060.62–4.26safer0.02–2.460.12–2.280.14–4.74
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.193.757.93safe2.32–6.052.00–5.494.33–11.54safer1.83–6.541.54–5.953.37–12.49
Total shots
51%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5511.8724.42safe8.63–16.488.31–15.4316.94–31.91safer7.54–17.577.35–16.3914.89–33.96
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction7.767.3615.12safe4.81–10.704.68–10.049.49–20.74safer3.99–11.533.94–10.787.93–22.31
Blocked shots
39%
15%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction3.353.586.93safe1.47–5.231.92–5.233.39–10.46safer0.93–5.781.43–5.722.36–11.50
Corners
42%
13%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction4.564.649.20safe2.35–6.782.64–6.644.99–13.42safer1.78–7.352.11–7.173.88–14.52
Possession %
39%
57%
homeawayprediction48.2852.10safe41.49–55.0745.32–58.89safer39.82–56.7443.65–60.56
Passes
44%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction447463911safe380–514397–530777–1044safer362–533379–547741–1080
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction71.7175.52safe67.68–75.7471.20–79.84safer66.39–77.0369.89–81.15
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7312.6826.41safe10.89–16.569.74–15.6320.63–32.19safer10.13–17.328.99–16.3819.12–33.70
Offsides
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.501.362.85safe0.34–2.660.26–2.450.60–5.11safer0.04–2.960.00–2.740.01–5.70
Yellow cards
46%
20%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.301.984.27safe1.25–3.350.85–3.102.09–6.45safer0.98–3.610.55–3.401.54–7.01
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.090.19safe0.00–0.260.00–0.280.00–0.54safer0.00–0.410.00–0.410.00–0.82
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.672.945.60safe1.23–4.101.38–4.492.61–8.59safer0.84–4.490.96–4.921.80–9.41
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.20 0.35–2.06 0.12–2.28 | 2.44 0.62–4.26 0.14–4.74 | 37% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.19 2.32–6.05 1.83–6.54 | 3.75 2.00–5.49 1.54–5.95 | 7.93 4.33–11.54 3.37–12.49 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 12.55 8.63–16.48 7.54–17.57 | 11.87 8.31–15.43 7.35–16.39 | 24.42 16.94–31.91 14.89–33.96 | 51% 40% |
| Shots in box | 7.76 4.81–10.70 3.99–11.53 | 7.36 4.68–10.04 3.94–10.78 | 15.12 9.49–20.74 7.93–22.31 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.35 1.47–5.23 0.93–5.78 | 3.58 1.92–5.23 1.43–5.72 | 6.93 3.39–10.46 2.36–11.50 | 39% 15% 46% |
| Corners | 4.56 2.35–6.78 1.78–7.35 | 4.64 2.64–6.64 2.11–7.17 | 9.20 4.99–13.42 3.88–14.52 | 42% 13% 44% |
| Possession % | 48.28 41.49–55.07 39.82–56.74 | 52.10 45.32–58.89 43.65–60.56 | — | 39% 57% |
| Passes | 447 380–514 362–533 | 463 397–530 379–547 | 911 777–1044 741–1080 | 44% 55% |
| Pass accuracy % | 71.71 67.68–75.74 66.39–77.03 | 75.52 71.20–79.84 69.89–81.15 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 13.73 10.89–16.56 10.13–17.32 | 12.68 9.74–15.63 8.99–16.38 | 26.41 20.63–32.19 19.12–33.70 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.50 0.34–2.66 0.04–2.96 | 1.36 0.26–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.85 0.60–5.11 0.01–5.70 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.30 1.25–3.35 0.98–3.61 | 1.98 0.85–3.10 0.55–3.40 | 4.27 2.09–6.45 1.54–7.01 | 46% 20% 34% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.23–4.10 0.84–4.49 | 2.94 1.38–4.49 0.96–4.92 | 5.60 2.61–8.59 1.80–9.41 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.