Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
27%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.251.182.43safe0.28–2.220.32–2.030.60–4.25safer0.03–2.470.09–2.260.12–4.73
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.323.898.21safe2.46–6.182.15–5.634.60–11.81safer1.97–6.671.68–6.103.65–12.77
Total shots
61%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5811.6125.19safe9.65–17.508.05–15.1717.70–32.68safer8.56–18.597.09–16.1315.65–34.73
Shots in box
53%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction8.367.5515.91safe5.42–11.304.87–10.2310.29–21.54safer4.59–12.134.13–10.978.72–23.10
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.782.866.64safe1.90–5.661.20–4.513.10–10.17safer1.35–6.210.71–5.002.07–11.21
Corners
53%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction5.114.389.49safe2.90–7.332.38–6.385.28–13.70safer2.33–7.901.84–6.914.17–14.81
Possession %
61%
34%
homeawayprediction53.3047.35safe46.51–60.0940.57–54.14safer44.84–61.7638.90–55.81
Passes
73%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction409337747safe342–477271–404613–880safer324–495253–421577–916
Pass accuracy %
40%
55%
homeawayprediction68.4769.86safe64.44–72.5065.54–74.19safer63.15–73.7964.23–75.50
Fouls
38%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction14.2115.3929.60safe11.37–17.0512.45–18.3423.82–35.38safer10.62–17.8011.70–19.0922.32–36.89
Offsides
27%
22%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.913.25safe0.18–2.500.81–3.000.99–5.50safer0.00–2.800.52–3.290.40–6.09
Yellow cards
36%
18%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.472.805.28safe1.42–3.521.67–3.933.10–7.45safer1.16–3.791.38–4.222.54–8.01
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.25safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.733.035.76safe1.30–4.171.47–4.592.77–8.76safer0.91–4.561.05–5.011.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.25 0.28–2.22 0.03–2.47 | 1.18 0.32–2.03 0.09–2.26 | 2.43 0.60–4.25 0.12–4.73 | 38% 27% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.32 2.46–6.18 1.97–6.67 | 3.89 2.15–5.63 1.68–6.10 | 8.21 4.60–11.81 3.65–12.77 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.58 9.65–17.50 8.56–18.59 | 11.61 8.05–15.17 7.09–16.13 | 25.19 17.70–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 61% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.36 5.42–11.30 4.59–12.13 | 7.55 4.87–10.23 4.13–10.97 | 15.91 10.29–21.54 8.72–23.10 | 53% 37% |
| Blocked shots | 3.78 1.90–5.66 1.35–6.21 | 2.86 1.20–4.51 0.71–5.00 | 6.64 3.10–10.17 2.07–11.21 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.11 2.90–7.33 2.33–7.90 | 4.38 2.38–6.38 1.84–6.91 | 9.49 5.28–13.70 4.17–14.81 | 53% 34% |
| Possession % | 53.30 46.51–60.09 44.84–61.76 | 47.35 40.57–54.14 38.90–55.81 | — | 61% 34% |
| Passes | 409 342–477 324–495 | 337 271–404 253–421 | 747 613–880 577–916 | 73% 27% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.47 64.44–72.50 63.15–73.79 | 69.86 65.54–74.19 64.23–75.50 | — | 40% 55% |
| Fouls | 14.21 11.37–17.05 10.62–17.80 | 15.39 12.45–18.34 11.70–19.09 | 29.60 23.82–35.38 22.32–36.89 | 38% 55% |
| Offsides | 1.34 0.18–2.50 0.00–2.80 | 1.91 0.81–3.00 0.52–3.29 | 3.25 0.99–5.50 0.40–6.09 | 27% 22% 51% |
| Yellow cards | 2.47 1.42–3.52 1.16–3.79 | 2.80 1.67–3.93 1.38–4.22 | 5.28 3.10–7.45 2.54–8.01 | 36% 18% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.73 1.30–4.17 0.91–4.56 | 3.03 1.47–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.76 2.77–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.