Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
42%
28%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.072.38safe0.34–2.280.21–1.920.55–4.20safer0.09–2.530.00–2.150.08–4.68
Shots on target
60%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction4.303.127.43safe2.44–6.171.38–4.863.82–11.03safer1.95–6.660.91–5.332.87–11.99
Total shots
73%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4510.0523.51safe9.53–17.386.49–13.6216.02–30.99safer8.44–18.475.53–14.5813.97–33.05
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction8.156.1414.29safe5.21–11.103.46–8.828.67–19.91safer4.38–11.932.72–9.557.10–21.48
Blocked shots
64%
15%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction3.582.175.75safe1.69–5.460.52–3.832.21–9.29safer1.15–6.000.03–4.321.18–10.32
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.364.399.75safe3.15–7.572.39–6.395.54–13.97safer2.57–8.151.86–6.934.43–15.07
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction55.1045.69safe48.31–61.8938.91–52.48safer46.64–63.5637.24–54.15
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction462348809safe394–529281–414676–943safer376–547264–432640–979
Pass accuracy %
59%
36%
homeawayprediction69.8367.50safe65.80–73.8663.18–71.82safer64.51–75.1561.87–73.13
Fouls
30%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction12.3814.5426.92safe9.55–15.2211.59–17.4821.14–32.70safer8.79–15.9810.84–18.2319.63–34.21
Offsides
38%
23%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.671.703.37safe0.51–2.830.60–2.791.12–5.62safer0.21–3.130.31–3.080.53–6.21
Yellow cards
28%
20%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.652.253.90safe0.60–2.701.12–3.381.72–6.08safer0.34–2.970.83–3.671.17–6.64
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
28%
17%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction2.263.085.34safe0.82–3.691.52–4.642.34–8.33safer0.43–4.081.10–5.061.53–9.14
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 0.34–2.28 0.09–2.53 | 1.07 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.38 0.55–4.20 0.08–4.68 | 42% 28% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.30 2.44–6.17 1.95–6.66 | 3.12 1.38–4.86 0.91–5.33 | 7.43 3.82–11.03 2.87–11.99 | 60% 14% 27% |
| Total shots | 13.45 9.53–17.38 8.44–18.47 | 10.05 6.49–13.62 5.53–14.58 | 23.51 16.02–30.99 13.97–33.05 | 73% 21% |
| Shots in box | 8.15 5.21–11.10 4.38–11.93 | 6.14 3.46–8.82 2.72–9.55 | 14.29 8.67–19.91 7.10–21.48 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 3.58 1.69–5.46 1.15–6.00 | 2.17 0.52–3.83 0.03–4.32 | 5.75 2.21–9.29 1.18–10.32 | 64% 15% 21% |
| Corners | 5.36 3.15–7.57 2.57–8.15 | 4.39 2.39–6.39 1.86–6.93 | 9.75 5.54–13.97 4.43–15.07 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 55.10 48.31–61.89 46.64–63.56 | 45.69 38.91–52.48 37.24–54.15 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 462 394–529 376–547 | 348 281–414 264–432 | 809 676–943 640–979 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.83 65.80–73.86 64.51–75.15 | 67.50 63.18–71.82 61.87–73.13 | — | 59% 36% |
| Fouls | 12.38 9.55–15.22 8.79–15.98 | 14.54 11.59–17.48 10.84–18.23 | 26.92 21.14–32.70 19.63–34.21 | 30% 63% |
| Offsides | 1.67 0.51–2.83 0.21–3.13 | 1.70 0.60–2.79 0.31–3.08 | 3.37 1.12–5.62 0.53–6.21 | 38% 23% 39% |
| Yellow cards | 1.65 0.60–2.70 0.34–2.97 | 2.25 1.12–3.38 0.83–3.67 | 3.90 1.72–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 28% 20% 51% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.26 0.82–3.69 0.43–4.08 | 3.08 1.52–4.64 1.10–5.06 | 5.34 2.34–8.33 1.53–9.14 | 28% 17% 55% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+