Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
89%
homeawaytotalprediction3.320.543.85safe2.35–4.280.00–1.392.03–5.68safer2.10–4.540.00–1.621.55–6.16
Shots on target
97%
homeawaytotalprediction8.492.0210.51safe6.62–10.350.28–3.766.90–14.11safer6.13–10.840.00–4.235.95–15.07
Total shots
100%
homeawaytotalprediction22.086.7628.84safe18.15–26.003.20–10.3221.35–36.33safer17.06–27.102.24–11.2819.30–38.38
Shots in box
100%
homeawaytotalprediction15.133.0318.16safe12.19–18.070.35–5.7112.54–23.78safer11.36–18.900.00–6.4510.97–25.35
Blocked shots
91%
homeawaytotalprediction5.191.436.63safe3.31–7.080.00–3.093.09–10.16safer2.77–7.620.00–3.582.06–11.20
Corners
96%
homeawaytotalprediction8.222.3510.57safe6.01–10.430.35–4.356.35–14.78safer5.43–11.010.00–4.885.25–15.89
Possession %
96%
homeawayprediction64.6634.76safe57.87–71.4527.98–41.55safer56.20–73.1226.31–43.22
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction623347969safe556–690280–413836–1103safer537–708263–431800–1139
Pass accuracy %
93%
homeawayprediction83.9471.71safe79.91–87.9767.38–76.03safer78.62–89.2666.07–77.34
Fouls
32%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction11.2813.1424.42safe8.44–14.1210.20–16.0918.64–30.21safer7.69–14.889.45–16.8317.14–31.71
Offsides
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.142.75safe0.45–2.770.05–2.230.50–5.00safer0.15–3.070.00–2.520.00–5.59
Yellow cards
22%
19%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.472.433.90safe0.42–2.521.31–3.561.72–6.08safer0.15–2.781.01–3.851.17–6.64
Red cards
80%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.160.23safe0.00–0.230.00–0.350.00–0.58safer0.00–0.380.00–0.480.00–0.86
GK saves
88%
homeawaytotalprediction1.595.036.62safe0.15–3.033.48–6.593.63–9.61safer0.00–3.413.05–7.012.82–10.43
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 3.32 2.35–4.28 2.10–4.54 | 0.54 0.00–1.39 0.00–1.62 | 3.85 2.03–5.68 1.55–6.16 | 89% |
| Shots on target | 8.49 6.62–10.35 6.13–10.84 | 2.02 0.28–3.76 0.00–4.23 | 10.51 6.90–14.11 5.95–15.07 | 97% |
| Total shots | 22.08 18.15–26.00 17.06–27.10 | 6.76 3.20–10.32 2.24–11.28 | 28.84 21.35–36.33 19.30–38.38 | 100% |
| Shots in box | 15.13 12.19–18.07 11.36–18.90 | 3.03 0.35–5.71 0.00–6.45 | 18.16 12.54–23.78 10.97–25.35 | 100% |
| Blocked shots | 5.19 3.31–7.08 2.77–7.62 | 1.43 0.00–3.09 0.00–3.58 | 6.63 3.09–10.16 2.06–11.20 | 91% |
| Corners | 8.22 6.01–10.43 5.43–11.01 | 2.35 0.35–4.35 0.00–4.88 | 10.57 6.35–14.78 5.25–15.89 | 96% |
| Possession % | 64.66 57.87–71.45 56.20–73.12 | 34.76 27.98–41.55 26.31–43.22 | — | 96% |
| Passes | 623 556–690 537–708 | 347 280–413 263–431 | 969 836–1103 800–1139 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.94 79.91–87.97 78.62–89.26 | 71.71 67.38–76.03 66.07–77.34 | — | 93% |
| Fouls | 11.28 8.44–14.12 7.69–14.88 | 13.14 10.20–16.09 9.45–16.83 | 24.42 18.64–30.21 17.14–31.71 | 32% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.14 0.05–2.23 0.00–2.52 | 2.75 0.50–5.00 0.00–5.59 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.47 0.42–2.52 0.15–2.78 | 2.43 1.31–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 3.90 1.72–6.08 1.17–6.64 | 22% 19% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.16 0.00–0.35 0.00–0.48 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% 14% |
| GK saves | 1.59 0.15–3.03 0.00–3.41 | 5.03 3.48–6.59 3.05–7.01 | 6.62 3.63–9.61 2.82–10.43 | 88% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.