Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 21·Predicted match statistics
Goals
37%
27%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.241.222.46safe0.27–2.210.36–2.070.63–4.28safer0.02–2.460.13–2.300.15–4.76
Shots on target
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.494.188.67safe2.63–6.352.44–5.925.07–12.28safer2.14–6.841.97–6.394.11–13.23
Total shots
65%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5911.1424.73safe9.66–17.517.58–14.7017.24–32.22safer8.57–18.616.62–15.6615.19–34.27
Shots in box
57%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction8.377.2115.58safe5.43–11.314.53–9.899.96–21.20safer4.60–12.143.79–10.638.39–22.77
Blocked shots
62%
14%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction3.982.706.68safe2.10–5.861.05–4.363.15–10.22safer1.55–6.410.56–4.852.11–11.25
Corners
61%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.193.889.07safe2.98–7.411.88–5.884.86–13.28safer2.41–7.981.34–6.413.75–14.39
Possession %
37%
59%
homeawayprediction47.4052.13safe40.61–54.1945.34–58.91safer38.94–55.8643.67–60.58
Passes
31%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction425482907safe358–492416–549774–1041safer339–510399–566738–1077
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction70.9274.95safe66.89–74.9570.63–79.27safer65.60–76.2469.32–80.58
Fouls
55%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction14.0412.8826.91safe11.20–16.879.93–15.8221.13–32.69safer10.44–17.639.18–16.5719.63–34.20
Offsides
30%
20%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.752.284.04safe0.59–2.911.19–3.381.78–6.29safer0.29–3.210.90–3.671.19–6.88
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.252.194.44safe1.20–3.301.07–3.322.26–6.62safer0.93–3.560.77–3.611.71–7.18
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.110.21safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.56safer0.00–0.410.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
35%
17%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction2.623.045.67safe1.19–4.061.49–4.602.67–8.66safer0.80–4.451.06–5.031.86–9.47
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.24 0.27–2.21 0.02–2.46 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.46 0.63–4.28 0.15–4.76 | 37% 27% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.49 2.63–6.35 2.14–6.84 | 4.18 2.44–5.92 1.97–6.39 | 8.67 5.07–12.28 4.11–13.23 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Total shots | 13.59 9.66–17.51 8.57–18.61 | 11.14 7.58–14.70 6.62–15.66 | 24.73 17.24–32.22 15.19–34.27 | 65% 28% |
| Shots in box | 8.37 5.43–11.31 4.60–12.14 | 7.21 4.53–9.89 3.79–10.63 | 15.58 9.96–21.20 8.39–22.77 | 57% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.98 2.10–5.86 1.55–6.41 | 2.70 1.05–4.36 0.56–4.85 | 6.68 3.15–10.22 2.11–11.25 | 62% 14% 24% |
| Corners | 5.19 2.98–7.41 2.41–7.98 | 3.88 1.88–5.88 1.34–6.41 | 9.07 4.86–13.28 3.75–14.39 | 61% 27% |
| Possession % | 47.40 40.61–54.19 38.94–55.86 | 52.13 45.34–58.91 43.67–60.58 | — | 37% 59% |
| Passes | 425 358–492 339–510 | 482 416–549 399–566 | 907 774–1041 738–1077 | 31% 68% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.92 66.89–74.95 65.60–76.24 | 74.95 70.63–79.27 69.32–80.58 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 14.04 11.20–16.87 10.44–17.63 | 12.88 9.93–15.82 9.18–16.57 | 26.91 21.13–32.69 19.63–34.20 | 55% 37% |
| Offsides | 1.75 0.59–2.91 0.29–3.21 | 2.28 1.19–3.38 0.90–3.67 | 4.04 1.78–6.29 1.19–6.88 | 30% 20% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.25 1.20–3.30 0.93–3.56 | 2.19 1.07–3.32 0.77–3.61 | 4.44 2.26–6.62 1.71–7.18 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.62 1.19–4.06 0.80–4.45 | 3.04 1.49–4.60 1.06–5.03 | 5.67 2.67–8.66 1.86–9.47 | 35% 17% 48% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.