Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
29%
27%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.081.392.47safe0.12–2.050.53–2.240.65–4.29safer0.00–2.300.31–2.470.17–4.77
Shots on target
28%
13%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction3.394.507.89safe1.53–5.262.76–6.244.29–11.50safer1.04–5.752.29–6.713.33–12.45
Total shots
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2213.2925.51safe8.30–16.159.73–16.8518.03–33.00safer7.21–17.248.77–17.8115.97–35.05
Shots in box
26%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction6.648.6615.30safe3.70–9.585.98–11.349.68–20.92safer2.87–10.415.24–12.088.11–22.49
Blocked shots
43%
16%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.126.34safe1.33–5.101.47–4.782.80–9.87safer0.79–5.640.98–5.271.77–10.91
Corners
45%
13%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction4.684.579.25safe2.47–6.892.57–6.575.04–13.47safer1.89–7.472.04–7.113.93–14.57
Possession %
43%
53%
homeawayprediction48.9951.10safe42.20–55.7844.31–57.88safer40.53–57.4542.64–59.55
Passes
47%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction447455902safe380–515388–521768–1036safer362–533371–539733–1071
Pass accuracy %
29%
67%
homeawayprediction70.2374.12safe66.20–74.2669.79–78.44safer64.90–75.5568.48–79.75
Fouls
39%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7013.6326.33safe9.86–15.5310.68–16.5720.54–32.11safer9.10–16.299.94–17.3219.04–33.61
Offsides
41%
25%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.402.94safe0.38–2.700.30–2.490.68–5.19safer0.08–3.000.02–2.780.09–5.78
Yellow cards
39%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.072.104.16safe1.02–3.120.97–3.231.99–6.34safer0.75–3.380.68–3.521.43–6.90
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.300.00–0.54safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
53%
17%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.325.32safe1.56–4.430.77–3.882.33–8.31safer1.17–4.820.34–4.301.51–9.12
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.08 0.12–2.05 0.00–2.30 | 1.39 0.53–2.24 0.31–2.47 | 2.47 0.65–4.29 0.17–4.77 | 29% 27% 44% |
| Shots on target | 3.39 1.53–5.26 1.04–5.75 | 4.50 2.76–6.24 2.29–6.71 | 7.89 4.29–11.50 3.33–12.45 | 28% 13% 58% |
| Total shots | 12.22 8.30–16.15 7.21–17.24 | 13.29 9.73–16.85 8.77–17.81 | 25.51 18.03–33.00 15.97–35.05 | 38% 54% |
| Shots in box | 6.64 3.70–9.58 2.87–10.41 | 8.66 5.98–11.34 5.24–12.08 | 15.30 9.68–20.92 8.11–22.49 | 26% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.33–5.10 0.79–5.64 | 3.12 1.47–4.78 0.98–5.27 | 6.34 2.80–9.87 1.77–10.91 | 43% 16% 40% |
| Corners | 4.68 2.47–6.89 1.89–7.47 | 4.57 2.57–6.57 2.04–7.11 | 9.25 5.04–13.47 3.93–14.57 | 45% 13% 42% |
| Possession % | 48.99 42.20–55.78 40.53–57.45 | 51.10 44.31–57.88 42.64–59.55 | — | 43% 53% |
| Passes | 447 380–515 362–533 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 902 768–1036 733–1071 | 47% 52% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.23 66.20–74.26 64.90–75.55 | 74.12 69.79–78.44 68.48–79.75 | — | 29% 67% |
| Fouls | 12.70 9.86–15.53 9.10–16.29 | 13.63 10.68–16.57 9.94–17.32 | 26.33 20.54–32.11 19.04–33.61 | 39% 53% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.08–3.00 | 1.40 0.30–2.49 0.02–2.78 | 2.94 0.68–5.19 0.09–5.78 | 41% 25% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.07 1.02–3.12 0.75–3.38 | 2.10 0.97–3.23 0.68–3.52 | 4.16 1.99–6.34 1.43–6.90 | 39% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.54 0.00–0.82 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 2.32 0.77–3.88 0.34–4.30 | 5.32 2.33–8.31 1.51–9.12 | 53% 17% 30% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.