Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
24%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction1.111.702.81safe0.14–2.070.85–2.560.99–4.63safer0.00–2.330.62–2.780.51–5.11
Shots on target
26%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction3.985.409.38safe2.12–5.853.66–7.145.78–12.99safer1.63–6.343.19–7.614.82–13.95
Total shots
27%
67%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8515.6928.54safe8.92–16.7712.13–19.2621.05–36.03safer7.83–17.8611.17–20.2219.00–38.08
Shots in box
27%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction7.749.8417.58safe4.79–10.687.16–12.5211.96–23.20safer3.97–11.516.42–13.2610.39–24.77
Blocked shots
35%
15%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.423.997.41safe1.54–5.312.34–5.643.88–10.95safer1.00–5.851.85–6.142.84–11.99
Corners
27%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction4.556.0110.56safe2.33–6.764.01–8.016.34–14.77safer1.76–7.333.48–8.545.24–15.88
Possession %
15%
82%
homeawayprediction41.9758.62safe35.18–48.7651.84–65.41safer33.51–50.4350.17–67.08
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction332457789safe265–400391–523656–923safer247–418373–541620–959
Pass accuracy %
89%
homeawayprediction63.7073.59safe59.67–67.7269.26–77.91safer58.37–69.0267.95–79.22
Fouls
25%
69%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4715.5528.03safe9.64–15.3112.61–18.5022.24–33.81safer8.88–16.0711.86–19.2520.74–35.31
Offsides
47%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.901.493.40safe0.74–3.060.40–2.591.15–5.65safer0.44–3.370.11–2.880.56–6.24
Yellow cards
36%
20%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.062.274.33safe1.01–3.111.14–3.402.15–6.51safer0.74–3.370.85–3.691.59–7.06
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.320.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.672.766.43safe2.23–5.101.20–4.323.43–9.42safer1.84–5.490.78–4.742.62–10.23
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.11 0.14–2.07 0.00–2.33 | 1.70 0.85–2.56 0.62–2.78 | 2.81 0.99–4.63 0.51–5.11 | 25% 24% 51% |
| Shots on target | 3.98 2.12–5.85 1.63–6.34 | 5.40 3.66–7.14 3.19–7.61 | 9.38 5.78–12.99 4.82–13.95 | 26% 62% |
| Total shots | 12.85 8.92–16.77 7.83–17.86 | 15.69 12.13–19.26 11.17–20.22 | 28.54 21.05–36.03 19.00–38.08 | 27% 67% |
| Shots in box | 7.74 4.79–10.68 3.97–11.51 | 9.84 7.16–12.52 6.42–13.26 | 17.58 11.96–23.20 10.39–24.77 | 27% 65% |
| Blocked shots | 3.42 1.54–5.31 1.00–5.85 | 3.99 2.34–5.64 1.85–6.14 | 7.41 3.88–10.95 2.84–11.99 | 35% 15% 51% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.33–6.76 1.76–7.33 | 6.01 4.01–8.01 3.48–8.54 | 10.56 6.34–14.77 5.24–15.88 | 27% 62% |
| Possession % | 41.97 35.18–48.76 33.51–50.43 | 58.62 51.84–65.41 50.17–67.08 | — | 15% 82% |
| Passes | 332 265–400 247–418 | 457 391–523 373–541 | 789 656–923 620–959 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 63.70 59.67–67.72 58.37–69.02 | 73.59 69.26–77.91 67.95–79.22 | — | 89% |
| Fouls | 12.47 9.64–15.31 8.88–16.07 | 15.55 12.61–18.50 11.86–19.25 | 28.03 22.24–33.81 20.74–35.31 | 25% 69% |
| Offsides | 1.90 0.74–3.06 0.44–3.37 | 1.49 0.40–2.59 0.11–2.88 | 3.40 1.15–5.65 0.56–6.24 | 47% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 2.06 1.01–3.11 0.74–3.37 | 2.27 1.14–3.40 0.85–3.69 | 4.33 2.15–6.51 1.59–7.06 | 36% 20% 44% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.67 2.23–5.10 1.84–5.49 | 2.76 1.20–4.32 0.78–4.74 | 6.43 3.43–9.42 2.62–10.23 | 56% 15% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.