Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 22·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.161.372.54safe0.19–2.130.52–2.230.71–4.36safer0.00–2.380.29–2.460.23–4.84
Shots on target
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.764.478.23safe1.90–5.622.73–6.224.63–11.84safer1.41–6.112.26–6.683.67–12.79
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.4513.6925.14safe7.52–15.3710.13–17.2517.65–32.63safer6.43–16.469.17–18.2115.60–34.68
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.898.8315.72safe3.95–9.836.15–11.5110.10–21.34safer3.12–10.665.41–12.258.53–22.91
Blocked shots
33%
16%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction2.833.406.23safe0.95–4.721.75–5.052.70–9.77safer0.41–5.261.25–5.541.66–10.80
Corners
37%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.484.999.48safe2.27–6.702.99–7.005.27–13.69safer1.70–7.272.46–7.534.16–14.80
Possession %
46%
50%
homeawayprediction49.7150.53safe42.92–56.5043.74–57.31safer41.25–58.1742.07–58.98
Passes
46%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction412425836safe345–479358–491703–970safer326–497341–509667–1006
Pass accuracy %
32%
63%
homeawayprediction69.3572.40safe65.32–73.3868.08–76.73safer64.03–74.6766.77–78.04
Fouls
43%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3714.8829.25safe11.53–17.2111.93–17.8223.47–35.03safer10.78–17.9711.18–18.5721.96–36.54
Offsides
50%
23%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.333.17safe0.68–3.000.23–2.420.92–5.42safer0.38–3.300.00–2.710.33–6.01
Yellow cards
40%
19%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.322.334.66safe1.27–3.371.21–3.462.48–6.83safer1.01–3.640.91–3.751.92–7.39
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
49%
17%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction3.142.705.84safe1.71–4.581.14–4.262.85–8.83safer1.32–4.970.72–4.682.04–9.65
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.16 0.19–2.13 0.00–2.38 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.46 | 2.54 0.71–4.36 0.23–4.84 | 32% 27% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.76 1.90–5.62 1.41–6.11 | 4.47 2.73–6.22 2.26–6.68 | 8.23 4.63–11.84 3.67–12.79 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 11.45 7.52–15.37 6.43–16.46 | 13.69 10.13–17.25 9.17–18.21 | 25.14 17.65–32.63 15.60–34.68 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.89 3.95–9.83 3.12–10.66 | 8.83 6.15–11.51 5.41–12.25 | 15.72 10.10–21.34 8.53–22.91 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 2.83 0.95–4.72 0.41–5.26 | 3.40 1.75–5.05 1.25–5.54 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 33% 16% 51% |
| Corners | 4.48 2.27–6.70 1.70–7.27 | 4.99 2.99–7.00 2.46–7.53 | 9.48 5.27–13.69 4.16–14.80 | 37% 50% |
| Possession % | 49.71 42.92–56.50 41.25–58.17 | 50.53 43.74–57.31 42.07–58.98 | — | 46% 50% |
| Passes | 412 345–479 326–497 | 425 358–491 341–509 | 836 703–970 667–1006 | 46% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.35 65.32–73.38 64.03–74.67 | 72.40 68.08–76.73 66.77–78.04 | — | 32% 63% |
| Fouls | 14.37 11.53–17.21 10.78–17.97 | 14.88 11.93–17.82 11.18–18.57 | 29.25 23.47–35.03 21.96–36.54 | 43% 50% |
| Offsides | 1.84 0.68–3.00 0.38–3.30 | 1.33 0.23–2.42 0.00–2.71 | 3.17 0.92–5.42 0.33–6.01 | 50% 23% 28% |
| Yellow cards | 2.32 1.27–3.37 1.01–3.64 | 2.33 1.21–3.46 0.91–3.75 | 4.66 2.48–6.83 1.92–7.39 | 40% 19% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.14 1.71–4.58 1.32–4.97 | 2.70 1.14–4.26 0.72–4.68 | 5.84 2.85–8.83 2.04–9.65 | 49% 17% 35% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.