Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.032.37safe0.37–2.310.17–1.880.54–4.19safer0.12–2.560.00–2.110.06–4.67
Shots on target
59%
13%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.513.387.88safe2.64–6.371.63–5.124.28–11.49safer2.15–6.861.17–5.583.32–12.44
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4310.6925.11safe10.50–18.357.12–14.2517.63–32.60safer9.41–19.446.16–15.2115.57–34.65
Shots in box
77%
16%
homeawaytotalprediction9.315.9415.25safe6.37–12.263.26–8.629.63–20.87safer5.54–13.082.52–9.368.06–22.44
Blocked shots
52%
15%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.913.267.17safe2.03–5.791.61–4.923.64–10.71safer1.48–6.341.12–5.412.60–11.74
Corners
63%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.654.129.77safe3.44–7.862.12–6.125.56–13.98safer2.86–8.441.59–6.654.45–15.09
Possession %
36%
59%
homeawayprediction47.2752.25safe40.48–54.0645.47–59.04safer38.81–55.7343.80–60.71
Passes
37%
63%
homeawaytotalprediction414455868safe347–481388–521735–1002safer329–499371–539699–1038
Pass accuracy %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction69.4272.43safe65.39–73.4568.11–76.75safer64.09–74.7466.80–78.06
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1212.2126.33safe11.28–16.969.27–15.1620.55–32.11safer10.52–17.718.52–15.9119.04–33.62
Offsides
39%
24%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.531.462.99safe0.37–2.690.37–2.550.74–5.25safer0.07–3.000.08–2.840.15–5.84
Yellow cards
38%
22%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.841.893.73safe0.79–2.890.76–3.021.55–5.90safer0.52–3.150.47–3.310.99–6.46
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.300.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
32%
17%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.105.58safe1.05–3.921.54–4.662.59–8.57safer0.66–4.311.12–5.081.78–9.39
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.03 0.17–1.88 0.00–2.11 | 2.37 0.54–4.19 0.06–4.67 | 44% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.51 2.64–6.37 2.15–6.86 | 3.38 1.63–5.12 1.17–5.58 | 7.88 4.28–11.49 3.32–12.44 | 59% 13% 28% |
| Total shots | 14.43 10.50–18.35 9.41–19.44 | 10.69 7.12–14.25 6.16–15.21 | 25.11 17.63–32.60 15.57–34.65 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.31 6.37–12.26 5.54–13.08 | 5.94 3.26–8.62 2.52–9.36 | 15.25 9.63–20.87 8.06–22.44 | 77% 16% |
| Blocked shots | 3.91 2.03–5.79 1.48–6.34 | 3.26 1.61–4.92 1.12–5.41 | 7.17 3.64–10.71 2.60–11.74 | 52% 15% 33% |
| Corners | 5.65 3.44–7.86 2.86–8.44 | 4.12 2.12–6.12 1.59–6.65 | 9.77 5.56–13.98 4.45–15.09 | 63% 26% |
| Possession % | 47.27 40.48–54.06 38.81–55.73 | 52.25 45.47–59.04 43.80–60.71 | — | 36% 59% |
| Passes | 414 347–481 329–499 | 455 388–521 371–539 | 868 735–1002 699–1038 | 37% 63% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.42 65.39–73.45 64.09–74.74 | 72.43 68.11–76.75 66.80–78.06 | — | 33% 63% |
| Fouls | 14.12 11.28–16.96 10.52–17.71 | 12.21 9.27–15.16 8.52–15.91 | 26.33 20.55–32.11 19.04–33.62 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.53 0.37–2.69 0.07–3.00 | 1.46 0.37–2.55 0.08–2.84 | 2.99 0.74–5.25 0.15–5.84 | 39% 24% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 1.84 0.79–2.89 0.52–3.15 | 1.89 0.76–3.02 0.47–3.31 | 3.73 1.55–5.90 0.99–6.46 | 38% 22% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.05–3.92 0.66–4.31 | 3.10 1.54–4.66 1.12–5.08 | 5.58 2.59–8.57 1.78–9.39 | 32% 17% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.