Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.432.66safe0.26–2.200.58–2.290.84–4.49safer0.01–2.450.35–2.520.36–4.96
Shots on target
38%
14%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.924.298.21safe2.05–5.782.55–6.044.60–11.81safer1.56–6.272.09–6.503.65–12.77
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6711.9225.60safe9.75–17.608.36–15.4918.11–33.09safer8.66–18.697.40–16.4516.06–35.14
Shots in box
49%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction8.468.1016.55safe5.51–11.405.41–10.7810.93–22.17safer4.68–12.234.68–11.519.36–23.74
Blocked shots
58%
14%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.922.876.80safe2.04–5.801.22–4.533.26–10.33safer1.50–6.350.73–5.022.23–11.37
Corners
53%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction5.294.569.85safe3.08–7.502.56–6.565.64–14.06safer2.50–8.082.03–7.104.53–15.17
Possession %
42%
53%
homeawayprediction48.7550.95safe41.96–55.5444.17–57.74safer40.29–57.2142.50–59.41
Passes
45%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction448461910safe381–515395–528776–1043safer363–534377–545740–1079
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction70.4873.41safe66.45–74.5169.09–77.74safer65.16–75.8067.78–79.05
Fouls
44%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7212.0123.72safe8.88–14.559.06–14.9517.94–29.51safer8.12–15.318.31–15.7016.44–31.01
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.562.073.63safe0.40–2.720.98–3.161.37–5.88safer0.10–3.020.69–3.450.78–6.47
Yellow cards
41%
22%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.801.683.48safe0.75–2.850.55–2.811.30–5.65safer0.48–3.120.26–3.100.74–6.21
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.090.18safe0.00–0.250.00–0.280.00–0.53safer0.00–0.400.00–0.410.00–0.81
GK saves
39%
18%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction2.642.785.42safe1.20–4.081.22–4.332.43–8.41safer0.82–4.460.80–4.761.61–9.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.43 0.58–2.29 0.35–2.52 | 2.66 0.84–4.49 0.36–4.96 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.92 2.05–5.78 1.56–6.27 | 4.29 2.55–6.04 2.09–6.50 | 8.21 4.60–11.81 3.65–12.77 | 38% 14% 48% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.75–17.60 8.66–18.69 | 11.92 8.36–15.49 7.40–16.45 | 25.60 18.11–33.09 16.06–35.14 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.46 5.51–11.40 4.68–12.23 | 8.10 5.41–10.78 4.68–11.51 | 16.55 10.93–22.17 9.36–23.74 | 49% 42% |
| Blocked shots | 3.92 2.04–5.80 1.50–6.35 | 2.87 1.22–4.53 0.73–5.02 | 6.80 3.26–10.33 2.23–11.37 | 58% 14% 27% |
| Corners | 5.29 3.08–7.50 2.50–8.08 | 4.56 2.56–6.56 2.03–7.10 | 9.85 5.64–14.06 4.53–15.17 | 53% 35% |
| Possession % | 48.75 41.96–55.54 40.29–57.21 | 50.95 44.17–57.74 42.50–59.41 | — | 42% 53% |
| Passes | 448 381–515 363–534 | 461 395–528 377–545 | 910 776–1043 740–1079 | 45% 54% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.48 66.45–74.51 65.16–75.80 | 73.41 69.09–77.74 67.78–79.05 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 11.72 8.88–14.55 8.12–15.31 | 12.01 9.06–14.95 8.31–15.70 | 23.72 17.94–29.51 16.44–31.01 | 44% 48% |
| Offsides | 1.56 0.40–2.72 0.10–3.02 | 2.07 0.98–3.16 0.69–3.45 | 3.63 1.37–5.88 0.78–6.47 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 1.80 0.75–2.85 0.48–3.12 | 1.68 0.55–2.81 0.26–3.10 | 3.48 1.30–5.65 0.74–6.21 | 41% 22% 36% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.18 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.81 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.64 1.20–4.08 0.82–4.46 | 2.78 1.22–4.33 0.80–4.76 | 5.42 2.43–8.41 1.61–9.22 | 39% 18% 44% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.