Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
26%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.422.62safe0.22–2.160.57–2.280.79–4.44safer0.00–2.410.34–2.510.31–4.92
Shots on target
36%
14%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction3.954.458.40safe2.08–5.812.71–6.194.79–12.00safer1.59–6.302.24–6.663.84–12.96
Total shots
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8913.2426.13safe8.97–16.819.68–16.8018.64–33.62safer7.87–17.918.72–17.7616.59–35.67
Shots in box
46%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction8.298.1516.44safe5.35–11.245.46–10.8310.82–22.06safer4.52–12.074.73–11.569.25–23.63
Blocked shots
42%
16%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction3.233.246.48safe1.35–5.121.59–4.902.94–10.01safer0.81–5.661.10–5.391.90–11.05
Corners
38%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction4.815.3110.11safe2.59–7.023.31–7.315.90–14.33safer2.02–7.592.77–7.844.79–15.44
Possession %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction44.6255.14safe37.83–51.4148.35–61.92safer36.16–53.0846.68–63.59
Passes
28%
72%
homeawaytotalprediction377447824safe310–444380–513690–958safer292–462363–531655–993
Pass accuracy %
14%
83%
homeawayprediction64.6372.61safe60.60–68.6668.29–76.94safer59.31–69.9566.98–78.25
Fouls
31%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction12.6214.6427.25safe9.78–15.4611.69–17.5821.47–33.04safer9.03–16.2110.94–18.3319.97–34.54
Offsides
51%
22%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.373.31safe0.78–3.110.28–2.461.06–5.57safer0.48–3.410.00–2.750.47–6.16
Yellow cards
31%
19%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.892.424.30safe0.84–2.931.29–3.542.12–6.48safer0.57–3.201.00–3.841.57–7.04
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.140.24safe0.00–0.260.00–0.330.00–0.59safer0.00–0.410.00–0.460.00–0.87
GK saves
45%
17%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction3.002.775.77safe1.56–4.431.22–4.332.78–8.76safer1.17–4.820.79–4.751.96–9.57
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.22–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.42 0.57–2.28 0.34–2.51 | 2.62 0.79–4.44 0.31–4.92 | 32% 26% 42% |
| Shots on target | 3.95 2.08–5.81 1.59–6.30 | 4.45 2.71–6.19 2.24–6.66 | 8.40 4.79–12.00 3.84–12.96 | 36% 14% 50% |
| Total shots | 12.89 8.97–16.81 7.87–17.91 | 13.24 9.68–16.80 8.72–17.76 | 26.13 18.64–33.62 16.59–35.67 | 43% 49% |
| Shots in box | 8.29 5.35–11.24 4.52–12.07 | 8.15 5.46–10.83 4.73–11.56 | 16.44 10.82–22.06 9.25–23.63 | 46% 44% |
| Blocked shots | 3.23 1.35–5.12 0.81–5.66 | 3.24 1.59–4.90 1.10–5.39 | 6.48 2.94–10.01 1.90–11.05 | 42% 16% 42% |
| Corners | 4.81 2.59–7.02 2.02–7.59 | 5.31 3.31–7.31 2.77–7.84 | 10.11 5.90–14.33 4.79–15.44 | 38% 50% |
| Possession % | 44.62 37.83–51.41 36.16–53.08 | 55.14 48.35–61.92 46.68–63.59 | — | 25% 71% |
| Passes | 377 310–444 292–462 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 824 690–958 655–993 | 28% 72% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.63 60.60–68.66 59.31–69.95 | 72.61 68.29–76.94 66.98–78.25 | — | 14% 83% |
| Fouls | 12.62 9.78–15.46 9.03–16.21 | 14.64 11.69–17.58 10.94–18.33 | 27.25 21.47–33.04 19.97–34.54 | 31% 61% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.78–3.11 0.48–3.41 | 1.37 0.28–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 3.31 1.06–5.57 0.47–6.16 | 51% 22% 27% |
| Yellow cards | 1.89 0.84–2.93 0.57–3.20 | 2.42 1.29–3.54 1.00–3.84 | 4.30 2.12–6.48 1.57–7.04 | 31% 19% 50% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.24 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 3.00 1.56–4.43 1.17–4.82 | 2.77 1.22–4.33 0.79–4.75 | 5.77 2.78–8.76 1.96–9.57 | 45% 17% 38% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.