Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
27%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.341.062.40safe0.37–2.310.20–1.910.58–4.22safer0.12–2.560.00–2.140.10–4.70
Shots on target
66%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction4.652.987.63safe2.79–6.511.23–4.724.02–11.23safer2.30–7.000.77–5.183.07–12.19
Total shots
74%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6710.1023.77safe9.75–17.596.54–13.6616.28–31.26safer8.65–18.695.58–14.6214.23–33.31
Shots in box
73%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction9.106.2515.34safe6.16–12.043.57–8.939.72–20.97safer5.33–12.872.83–9.678.15–22.53
Blocked shots
64%
14%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction3.732.366.08safe1.84–5.610.70–4.012.55–9.62safer1.30–6.150.21–4.501.51–10.65
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.343.929.26safe3.13–7.561.92–5.925.05–13.48safer2.56–8.131.38–6.453.94–14.58
Possession %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction56.3344.02safe49.54–63.1237.24–50.81safer47.87–64.7935.57–52.48
Passes
81%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction460354814safe393–527288–421680–948safer375–545270–438645–984
Pass accuracy %
60%
35%
homeawayprediction70.4367.92safe66.40–74.4663.60–72.24safer65.11–75.7562.29–73.55
Fouls
48%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4614.2228.68safe11.62–17.3011.28–17.1722.90–34.47safer10.87–18.0510.53–17.9221.40–35.97
Offsides
48%
22%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.981.523.50safe0.82–3.140.43–2.621.25–5.76safer0.52–3.440.14–2.910.66–6.35
Yellow cards
31%
19%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.902.394.29safe0.85–2.951.26–3.522.11–6.47safer0.59–3.220.97–3.811.56–7.03
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.130.24safe0.00–0.270.00–0.310.00–0.58safer0.00–0.420.00–0.450.00–0.87
GK saves
25%
16%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction2.113.125.24safe0.68–3.551.57–4.682.24–8.23safer0.29–3.941.14–5.101.43–9.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.34 0.37–2.31 0.12–2.56 | 1.06 0.20–1.91 0.00–2.14 | 2.40 0.58–4.22 0.10–4.70 | 43% 27% 29% |
| Shots on target | 4.65 2.79–6.51 2.30–7.00 | 2.98 1.23–4.72 0.77–5.18 | 7.63 4.02–11.23 3.07–12.19 | 66% 21% |
| Total shots | 13.67 9.75–17.59 8.65–18.69 | 10.10 6.54–13.66 5.58–14.62 | 23.77 16.28–31.26 14.23–33.31 | 74% 20% |
| Shots in box | 9.10 6.16–12.04 5.33–12.87 | 6.25 3.57–8.93 2.83–9.67 | 15.34 9.72–20.97 8.15–22.53 | 73% 19% |
| Blocked shots | 3.73 1.84–5.61 1.30–6.15 | 2.36 0.70–4.01 0.21–4.50 | 6.08 2.55–9.62 1.51–10.65 | 64% 14% 22% |
| Corners | 5.34 3.13–7.56 2.56–8.13 | 3.92 1.92–5.92 1.38–6.45 | 9.26 5.05–13.48 3.94–14.58 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 56.33 49.54–63.12 47.87–64.79 | 44.02 37.24–50.81 35.57–52.48 | — | 75% 22% |
| Passes | 460 393–527 375–545 | 354 288–421 270–438 | 814 680–948 645–984 | 81% 19% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.43 66.40–74.46 65.11–75.75 | 67.92 63.60–72.24 62.29–73.55 | — | 60% 35% |
| Fouls | 14.46 11.62–17.30 10.87–18.05 | 14.22 11.28–17.17 10.53–17.92 | 28.68 22.90–34.47 21.40–35.97 | 48% 45% |
| Offsides | 1.98 0.82–3.14 0.52–3.44 | 1.52 0.43–2.62 0.14–2.91 | 3.50 1.25–5.76 0.66–6.35 | 48% 22% 30% |
| Yellow cards | 1.90 0.85–2.95 0.59–3.22 | 2.39 1.26–3.52 0.97–3.81 | 4.29 2.11–6.47 1.56–7.03 | 31% 19% 49% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.24 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.87 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.11 0.68–3.55 0.29–3.94 | 3.12 1.57–4.68 1.14–5.10 | 5.24 2.24–8.23 1.43–9.04 | 25% 16% 59% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.