Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 29·Predicted match statistics
Goals
49%
25%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.591.062.65safe0.62–2.550.21–1.920.82–4.47safer0.37–2.800.00–2.150.35–4.95
Shots on target
66%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction5.243.508.74safe3.38–7.101.75–5.245.13–12.34safer2.89–7.591.29–5.714.18–13.30
Total shots
82%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction15.3210.2225.54safe11.39–19.246.66–13.7918.06–33.03safer10.30–20.345.70–14.7516.01–35.08
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction8.976.2215.20safe6.03–11.913.54–8.919.57–20.82safer5.20–12.742.81–9.648.01–22.39
Blocked shots
70%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.202.366.57safe2.32–6.090.71–4.023.03–10.10safer1.78–6.630.22–4.512.00–11.14
Corners
74%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.833.419.23safe3.61–8.041.41–5.415.02–13.45safer3.04–8.610.87–5.943.91–14.56
Possession %
73%
24%
homeawayprediction55.5544.34safe48.76–62.3437.56–51.13safer47.09–64.0135.89–52.80
Passes
81%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction484376860safe416–551309–442726–993safer398–569292–460690–1029
Pass accuracy %
71%
25%
homeawayprediction77.3772.62safe73.34–81.4068.29–76.94safer72.05–82.6966.98–78.25
Fouls
31%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction12.5114.5927.11safe9.68–15.3511.65–17.5421.32–32.89safer8.92–16.1110.90–18.2819.82–34.39
Offsides
37%
25%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.462.90safe0.27–2.590.37–2.550.64–5.15safer0.00–2.900.08–2.840.05–5.74
Yellow cards
36%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.622.935.56safe1.57–3.671.80–4.063.38–7.73safer1.31–3.941.51–4.352.82–8.29
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.130.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.320.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.515.90safe0.95–3.821.96–5.072.91–8.89safer0.56–4.211.53–5.492.10–9.71
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.59 0.62–2.55 0.37–2.80 | 1.06 0.21–1.92 0.00–2.15 | 2.65 0.82–4.47 0.35–4.95 | 49% 25% 25% |
| Shots on target | 5.24 3.38–7.10 2.89–7.59 | 3.50 1.75–5.24 1.29–5.71 | 8.74 5.13–12.34 4.18–13.30 | 66% 22% |
| Total shots | 15.32 11.39–19.24 10.30–20.34 | 10.22 6.66–13.79 5.70–14.75 | 25.54 18.06–33.03 16.01–35.08 | 82% 13% |
| Shots in box | 8.97 6.03–11.91 5.20–12.74 | 6.22 3.54–8.91 2.81–9.64 | 15.20 9.57–20.82 8.01–22.39 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 4.20 2.32–6.09 1.78–6.63 | 2.36 0.71–4.02 0.22–4.51 | 6.57 3.03–10.10 2.00–11.14 | 70% 18% |
| Corners | 5.83 3.61–8.04 3.04–8.61 | 3.41 1.41–5.41 0.87–5.94 | 9.23 5.02–13.45 3.91–14.56 | 74% 17% |
| Possession % | 55.55 48.76–62.34 47.09–64.01 | 44.34 37.56–51.13 35.89–52.80 | — | 73% 24% |
| Passes | 484 416–551 398–569 | 376 309–442 292–460 | 860 726–993 690–1029 | 81% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 77.37 73.34–81.40 72.05–82.69 | 72.62 68.29–76.94 66.98–78.25 | — | 71% 25% |
| Fouls | 12.51 9.68–15.35 8.92–16.11 | 14.59 11.65–17.54 10.90–18.28 | 27.11 21.32–32.89 19.82–34.39 | 31% 62% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.90 | 1.46 0.37–2.55 0.08–2.84 | 2.90 0.64–5.15 0.05–5.74 | 37% 25% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.62 1.57–3.67 1.31–3.94 | 2.93 1.80–4.06 1.51–4.35 | 5.56 3.38–7.73 2.82–8.29 | 36% 17% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.95–3.82 0.56–4.21 | 3.51 1.96–5.07 1.53–5.49 | 5.90 2.91–8.89 2.10–9.71 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+