Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
25%
26%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction0.991.492.48safe0.02–1.960.64–2.350.66–4.30safer0.00–2.210.41–2.580.18–4.78
Shots on target
28%
13%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction3.524.658.18safe1.66–5.392.91–6.394.57–11.78safer1.17–5.882.44–6.863.62–12.74
Total shots
29%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5413.7825.31safe7.61–15.4610.22–17.3417.83–32.80safer6.52–16.559.26–18.3015.78–34.85
Shots in box
27%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction6.398.2314.62safe3.45–9.335.55–10.919.00–20.24safer2.62–10.164.81–11.657.43–21.81
Blocked shots
27%
15%
58%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.646.23safe0.72–4.481.98–5.292.70–9.77safer0.17–5.021.49–5.781.66–10.80
Corners
27%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction3.875.249.11safe1.65–6.083.24–7.244.89–13.32safer1.08–6.652.71–7.783.79–14.43
Possession %
33%
63%
homeawayprediction46.7353.29safe39.94–53.5246.51–60.08safer38.27–55.1944.84–61.75
Passes
39%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction415447862safe348–482380–513728–996safer330–501363–531693–1031
Pass accuracy %
25%
70%
homeawayprediction70.3575.01safe66.32–74.3870.68–79.33safer65.02–75.6769.37–80.64
Fouls
50%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction13.5113.0626.57safe10.67–16.3510.12–16.0120.79–32.35safer9.92–17.109.37–16.7619.28–33.86
Offsides
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.362.79safe0.27–2.590.27–2.450.54–5.05safer0.00–2.890.00–2.740.00–5.64
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.372.244.61safe1.32–3.421.11–3.372.43–6.79safer1.05–3.680.82–3.661.87–7.34
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.120.25safe0.00–0.280.00–0.310.00–0.59safer0.00–0.430.00–0.440.00–0.88
GK saves
54%
16%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.292.505.79safe1.85–4.730.95–4.062.80–8.78safer1.47–5.110.52–4.481.99–9.60
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.99 0.02–1.96 0.00–2.21 | 1.49 0.64–2.35 0.41–2.58 | 2.48 0.66–4.30 0.18–4.78 | 25% 26% 49% |
| Shots on target | 3.52 1.66–5.39 1.17–5.88 | 4.65 2.91–6.39 2.44–6.86 | 8.18 4.57–11.78 3.62–12.74 | 28% 13% 59% |
| Total shots | 11.54 7.61–15.46 6.52–16.55 | 13.78 10.22–17.34 9.26–18.30 | 25.31 17.83–32.80 15.78–34.85 | 29% 64% |
| Shots in box | 6.39 3.45–9.33 2.62–10.16 | 8.23 5.55–10.91 4.81–11.65 | 14.62 9.00–20.24 7.43–21.81 | 27% 64% |
| Blocked shots | 2.60 0.72–4.48 0.17–5.02 | 3.64 1.98–5.29 1.49–5.78 | 6.23 2.70–9.77 1.66–10.80 | 27% 15% 58% |
| Corners | 3.87 1.65–6.08 1.08–6.65 | 5.24 3.24–7.24 2.71–7.78 | 9.11 4.89–13.32 3.79–14.43 | 27% 61% |
| Possession % | 46.73 39.94–53.52 38.27–55.19 | 53.29 46.51–60.08 44.84–61.75 | — | 33% 63% |
| Passes | 415 348–482 330–501 | 447 380–513 363–531 | 862 728–996 693–1031 | 39% 60% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.35 66.32–74.38 65.02–75.67 | 75.01 70.68–79.33 69.37–80.64 | — | 25% 70% |
| Fouls | 13.51 10.67–16.35 9.92–17.10 | 13.06 10.12–16.01 9.37–16.76 | 26.57 20.79–32.35 19.28–33.86 | 50% 43% |
| Offsides | 1.43 0.27–2.59 0.00–2.89 | 1.36 0.27–2.45 0.00–2.74 | 2.79 0.54–5.05 0.00–5.64 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.05–3.68 | 2.24 1.11–3.37 0.82–3.66 | 4.61 2.43–6.79 1.87–7.34 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.25 0.00–0.59 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 3.29 1.85–4.73 1.47–5.11 | 2.50 0.95–4.06 0.52–4.48 | 5.79 2.80–8.78 1.99–9.60 | 54% 16% 29% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+