Predicted match statistics
Goals
27%
25%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.582.71safe0.16–2.100.73–2.440.89–4.53safer0.00–2.350.50–2.670.41–5.01
Shots on target
32%
14%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction3.774.578.33safe1.90–5.632.82–6.314.73–11.94safer1.41–6.122.36–6.773.77–12.89
Total shots
42%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0612.6024.65safe8.13–15.989.04–16.1617.17–32.14safer7.04–17.078.08–17.1215.12–34.19
Shots in box
37%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction7.328.0815.40safe4.37–10.265.40–10.769.77–21.02safer3.54–11.094.66–11.508.21–22.59
Blocked shots
43%
16%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.273.196.46safe1.39–5.151.54–4.852.93–10.00safer0.85–5.701.05–5.341.89–11.03
Corners
38%
13%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction4.284.698.97safe2.07–6.502.69–6.694.76–13.18safer1.50–7.072.15–7.223.65–14.29
Possession %
31%
65%
homeawayprediction46.7954.20safe40.00–53.5847.41–60.98safer38.33–55.2545.74–62.65
Passes
26%
74%
homeawaytotalprediction444522966safe377–512455–588832–1100safer359–530438–606797–1135
Pass accuracy %
18%
78%
homeawayprediction70.5177.08safe66.48–74.5472.76–81.40safer65.19–75.8371.45–82.71
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction12.9511.8924.85safe10.12–15.798.95–14.8419.06–30.63safer9.36–16.558.20–15.5917.56–32.13
Offsides
30%
21%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction1.632.133.75safe0.47–2.791.03–3.221.50–6.01safer0.17–3.090.74–3.510.91–6.60
Yellow cards
43%
19%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction2.382.264.63safe1.33–3.431.13–3.392.46–6.81safer1.06–3.690.84–3.681.90–7.37
Red cards
78%
homeawaytotalprediction0.140.130.27safe0.00–0.300.00–0.320.00–0.62safer0.00–0.450.00–0.450.00–0.90
GK saves
49%
17%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.052.615.66safe1.61–4.481.05–4.172.67–8.65safer1.23–4.870.63–4.591.85–9.46
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.16–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.58 0.73–2.44 0.50–2.67 | 2.71 0.89–4.53 0.41–5.01 | 27% 25% 48% |
| Shots on target | 3.77 1.90–5.63 1.41–6.12 | 4.57 2.82–6.31 2.36–6.77 | 8.33 4.73–11.94 3.77–12.89 | 32% 14% 54% |
| Total shots | 12.06 8.13–15.98 7.04–17.07 | 12.60 9.04–16.16 8.08–17.12 | 24.65 17.17–32.14 15.12–34.19 | 42% 50% |
| Shots in box | 7.32 4.37–10.26 3.54–11.09 | 8.08 5.40–10.76 4.66–11.50 | 15.40 9.77–21.02 8.21–22.59 | 37% 53% |
| Blocked shots | 3.27 1.39–5.15 0.85–5.70 | 3.19 1.54–4.85 1.05–5.34 | 6.46 2.93–10.00 1.89–11.03 | 43% 16% 41% |
| Corners | 4.28 2.07–6.50 1.50–7.07 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.15–7.22 | 8.97 4.76–13.18 3.65–14.29 | 38% 13% 49% |
| Possession % | 46.79 40.00–53.58 38.33–55.25 | 54.20 47.41–60.98 45.74–62.65 | — | 31% 65% |
| Passes | 444 377–512 359–530 | 522 455–588 438–606 | 966 832–1100 797–1135 | 26% 74% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.51 66.48–74.54 65.19–75.83 | 77.08 72.76–81.40 71.45–82.71 | — | 18% 78% |
| Fouls | 12.95 10.12–15.79 9.36–16.55 | 11.89 8.95–14.84 8.20–15.59 | 24.85 19.06–30.63 17.56–32.13 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.63 0.47–2.79 0.17–3.09 | 2.13 1.03–3.22 0.74–3.51 | 3.75 1.50–6.01 0.91–6.60 | 30% 21% 49% |
| Yellow cards | 2.38 1.33–3.43 1.06–3.69 | 2.26 1.13–3.39 0.84–3.68 | 4.63 2.46–6.81 1.90–7.37 | 43% 19% 38% |
| Red cards | 0.14 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.45 | 0.13 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.45 | 0.27 0.00–0.62 0.00–0.90 | 78% |
| GK saves | 3.05 1.61–4.48 1.23–4.87 | 2.61 1.05–4.17 0.63–4.59 | 5.66 2.67–8.65 1.85–9.46 | 49% 17% 34% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+