Predicted match statistics
Goals
44%
27%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.371.082.45safe0.40–2.340.22–1.930.63–4.27safer0.15–2.590.00–2.160.15–4.75
Shots on target
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.143.989.12safe3.28–7.012.23–5.725.52–12.73safer2.79–7.501.77–6.194.56–13.68
Total shots
71%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction16.0112.5128.52safe12.09–19.948.94–16.0721.03–36.01safer11.00–21.037.99–17.0318.98–38.06
Shots in box
66%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction9.427.2216.64safe6.48–12.364.54–9.9011.02–22.26safer5.65–13.193.80–10.649.45–23.83
Blocked shots
58%
14%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction4.173.087.25safe2.29–6.051.43–4.743.72–10.79safer1.74–6.600.94–5.232.68–11.82
Corners
56%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction5.744.7210.46safe3.53–7.962.72–6.726.25–14.67safer2.96–8.532.18–7.255.14–15.78
Possession %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction48.1752.17safe41.38–54.9645.39–58.96safer39.71–56.6343.72–60.63
Passes
35%
65%
homeawaytotalprediction381428809safe314–449362–494676–943safer296–467344–512640–979
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction68.5673.28safe64.53–72.5968.95–77.60safer63.23–73.8867.65–78.91
Fouls
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1814.2128.39safe11.34–17.0211.26–17.1522.61–34.17safer10.59–17.7710.51–17.9021.10–35.67
Offsides
38%
25%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction1.421.392.81safe0.26–2.580.29–2.480.56–5.06safer0.00–2.880.01–2.770.00–5.65
Yellow cards
39%
19%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.272.354.62safe1.22–3.321.22–3.482.44–6.80safer0.95–3.580.93–3.771.88–7.36
Red cards
77%
homeawaytotalprediction0.160.130.28safe0.00–0.320.00–0.310.00–0.63safer0.00–0.470.00–0.450.00–0.91
GK saves
29%
15%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction2.683.556.22safe1.24–4.111.99–5.103.23–9.21safer0.85–4.501.57–5.532.42–10.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.37 0.40–2.34 0.15–2.59 | 1.08 0.22–1.93 0.00–2.16 | 2.45 0.63–4.27 0.15–4.75 | 44% 27% 30% |
| Shots on target | 5.14 3.28–7.01 2.79–7.50 | 3.98 2.23–5.72 1.77–6.19 | 9.12 5.52–12.73 4.56–13.68 | 59% 29% |
| Total shots | 16.01 12.09–19.94 11.00–21.03 | 12.51 8.94–16.07 7.99–17.03 | 28.52 21.03–36.01 18.98–38.06 | 71% 23% |
| Shots in box | 9.42 6.48–12.36 5.65–13.19 | 7.22 4.54–9.90 3.80–10.64 | 16.64 11.02–22.26 9.45–23.83 | 66% 25% |
| Blocked shots | 4.17 2.29–6.05 1.74–6.60 | 3.08 1.43–4.74 0.94–5.23 | 7.25 3.72–10.79 2.68–11.82 | 58% 14% 28% |
| Corners | 5.74 3.53–7.96 2.96–8.53 | 4.72 2.72–6.72 2.18–7.25 | 10.46 6.25–14.67 5.14–15.78 | 56% 32% |
| Possession % | 48.17 41.38–54.96 39.71–56.63 | 52.17 45.39–58.96 43.72–60.63 | — | 38% 57% |
| Passes | 381 314–449 296–467 | 428 362–494 344–512 | 809 676–943 640–979 | 35% 65% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.56 64.53–72.59 63.23–73.88 | 73.28 68.95–77.60 67.65–78.91 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 14.18 11.34–17.02 10.59–17.77 | 14.21 11.26–17.15 10.51–17.90 | 28.39 22.61–34.17 21.10–35.67 | 46% 46% |
| Offsides | 1.42 0.26–2.58 0.00–2.88 | 1.39 0.29–2.48 0.01–2.77 | 2.81 0.56–5.06 0.00–5.65 | 38% 25% 37% |
| Yellow cards | 2.27 1.22–3.32 0.95–3.58 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.62 2.44–6.80 1.88–7.36 | 39% 19% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.16 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.47 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.28 0.00–0.63 0.00–0.91 | 77% |
| GK saves | 2.68 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.55 1.99–5.10 1.57–5.53 | 6.22 3.23–9.21 2.42–10.03 | 29% 15% 56% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.