Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction2.100.752.86safe1.14–3.070.00–1.611.03–4.68safer0.88–3.320.00–1.840.55–5.16
Shots on target
82%
homeawaytotalprediction5.972.778.74safe4.11–7.831.03–4.515.14–12.35safer3.62–8.320.56–4.984.18–13.30
Total shots
94%
homeawaytotalprediction17.669.3627.03safe13.74–21.595.80–12.9319.54–34.51safer12.65–22.684.84–13.8917.49–36.57
Shots in box
89%
homeawaytotalprediction11.045.5916.62safe8.09–13.982.91–8.2711.00–22.25safer7.26–14.812.17–9.019.43–23.81
Blocked shots
74%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction4.372.206.57safe2.49–6.250.55–3.863.04–10.11safer1.94–6.790.06–4.352.00–11.14
Corners
85%
homeawaytotalprediction6.993.2210.20safe4.77–9.201.22–5.225.99–14.41safer4.20–9.770.68–5.754.88–15.52
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction59.7739.68safe52.98–66.5632.89–46.46safer51.31–68.2331.22–48.13
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction528352880safe461–595285–418746–1013safer443–613268–436710–1049
Pass accuracy %
80%
17%
homeawayprediction74.5167.59safe70.48–78.5463.26–71.91safer69.19–79.8361.95–73.22
Fouls
45%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3513.5626.91safe10.52–16.1910.61–16.5021.13–32.69safer9.76–16.959.87–17.2519.62–34.20
Offsides
64%
19%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction2.241.073.31safe1.08–3.400.00–2.171.06–5.57safer0.78–3.700.00–2.460.47–6.16
Yellow cards
25%
20%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction1.532.293.83safe0.49–2.581.16–3.421.65–6.00safer0.22–2.850.87–3.711.09–6.56
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.140.23safe0.00–0.240.00–0.330.00–0.57safer0.00–0.390.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
18%
14%
68%
homeawaytotalprediction2.003.615.61safe0.57–3.442.06–5.172.62–8.61safer0.18–3.831.63–5.591.81–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.10 1.14–3.07 0.88–3.32 | 0.75 0.00–1.61 0.00–1.84 | 2.86 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 69% 19% |
| Shots on target | 5.97 4.11–7.83 3.62–8.32 | 2.77 1.03–4.51 0.56–4.98 | 8.74 5.14–12.35 4.18–13.30 | 82% |
| Total shots | 17.66 13.74–21.59 12.65–22.68 | 9.36 5.80–12.93 4.84–13.89 | 27.03 19.54–34.51 17.49–36.57 | 94% |
| Shots in box | 11.04 8.09–13.98 7.26–14.81 | 5.59 2.91–8.27 2.17–9.01 | 16.62 11.00–22.25 9.43–23.81 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 4.37 2.49–6.25 1.94–6.79 | 2.20 0.55–3.86 0.06–4.35 | 6.57 3.04–10.11 2.00–11.14 | 74% 14% |
| Corners | 6.99 4.77–9.20 4.20–9.77 | 3.22 1.22–5.22 0.68–5.75 | 10.20 5.99–14.41 4.88–15.52 | 85% |
| Possession % | 59.77 52.98–66.56 51.31–68.23 | 39.68 32.89–46.46 31.22–48.13 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 528 461–595 443–613 | 352 285–418 268–436 | 880 746–1013 710–1049 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.51 70.48–78.54 69.19–79.83 | 67.59 63.26–71.91 61.95–73.22 | — | 80% 17% |
| Fouls | 13.35 10.52–16.19 9.76–16.95 | 13.56 10.61–16.50 9.87–17.25 | 26.91 21.13–32.69 19.62–34.20 | 45% 48% |
| Offsides | 2.24 1.08–3.40 0.78–3.70 | 1.07 0.00–2.17 0.00–2.46 | 3.31 1.06–5.57 0.47–6.16 | 64% 19% 17% |
| Yellow cards | 1.53 0.49–2.58 0.22–2.85 | 2.29 1.16–3.42 0.87–3.71 | 3.83 1.65–6.00 1.09–6.56 | 25% 20% 55% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.00 0.57–3.44 0.18–3.83 | 3.61 2.06–5.17 1.63–5.59 | 5.61 2.62–8.61 1.81–9.42 | 18% 14% 68% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.