Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
26%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.361.282.64safe0.40–2.330.43–2.130.82–4.47safer0.14–2.580.20–2.360.34–4.95
Shots on target
49%
14%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction4.293.848.12safe2.43–6.152.09–5.584.52–11.73safer1.94–6.641.63–6.043.56–12.69
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7111.9425.65safe9.78–17.638.38–15.5018.16–33.13safer8.69–18.727.42–16.4616.11–35.18
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.247.8616.10safe5.30–11.185.18–10.5410.48–21.72safer4.47–12.014.44–11.288.91–23.29
Blocked shots
43%
15%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction3.563.507.06safe1.68–5.441.84–5.153.52–10.59safer1.13–5.981.35–5.642.49–11.63
Corners
51%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction5.194.599.78safe2.98–7.402.59–6.595.57–13.99safer2.40–7.982.06–7.124.46–15.10
Possession %
66%
30%
homeawayprediction54.3046.29safe47.51–61.0939.50–53.07safer45.84–62.7637.83–54.74
Passes
78%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction488395882safe420–555328–461749–1016safer402–573311–479713–1052
Pass accuracy %
45%
50%
homeawayprediction70.9471.44safe66.91–74.9767.12–75.77safer65.62–76.2765.81–77.08
Fouls
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3412.5425.88safe10.50–16.189.60–15.4920.10–31.66safer9.74–16.938.85–16.2418.59–33.17
Offsides
42%
25%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.252.73safe0.32–2.640.16–2.340.47–4.98safer0.02–2.940.00–2.630.00–5.57
Yellow cards
39%
21%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction1.971.993.96safe0.92–3.020.86–3.111.78–6.14safer0.66–3.290.57–3.411.22–6.69
Red cards
84%
homeawaytotalprediction0.080.110.19safe0.00–0.240.00–0.290.00–0.53safer0.00–0.390.00–0.430.00–0.82
GK saves
36%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.673.035.71safe1.24–4.111.48–4.592.71–8.70safer0.85–4.501.05–5.011.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.36 0.40–2.33 0.14–2.58 | 1.28 0.43–2.13 0.20–2.36 | 2.64 0.82–4.47 0.34–4.95 | 39% 26% 35% |
| Shots on target | 4.29 2.43–6.15 1.94–6.64 | 3.84 2.09–5.58 1.63–6.04 | 8.12 4.52–11.73 3.56–12.69 | 49% 14% 37% |
| Total shots | 13.71 9.78–17.63 8.69–18.72 | 11.94 8.38–15.50 7.42–16.46 | 25.65 18.16–33.13 16.11–35.18 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 8.24 5.30–11.18 4.47–12.01 | 7.86 5.18–10.54 4.44–11.28 | 16.10 10.48–21.72 8.91–23.29 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.56 1.68–5.44 1.13–5.98 | 3.50 1.84–5.15 1.35–5.64 | 7.06 3.52–10.59 2.49–11.63 | 43% 15% 41% |
| Corners | 5.19 2.98–7.40 2.40–7.98 | 4.59 2.59–6.59 2.06–7.12 | 9.78 5.57–13.99 4.46–15.10 | 51% 36% |
| Possession % | 54.30 47.51–61.09 45.84–62.76 | 46.29 39.50–53.07 37.83–54.74 | — | 66% 30% |
| Passes | 488 420–555 402–573 | 395 328–461 311–479 | 882 749–1016 713–1052 | 78% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 70.94 66.91–74.97 65.62–76.27 | 71.44 67.12–75.77 65.81–77.08 | — | 45% 50% |
| Fouls | 13.34 10.50–16.18 9.74–16.93 | 12.54 9.60–15.49 8.85–16.24 | 25.88 20.10–31.66 18.59–33.17 | 52% 40% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 1.25 0.16–2.34 0.00–2.63 | 2.73 0.47–4.98 0.00–5.57 | 42% 25% 32% |
| Yellow cards | 1.97 0.92–3.02 0.66–3.29 | 1.99 0.86–3.11 0.57–3.41 | 3.96 1.78–6.14 1.22–6.69 | 39% 21% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.08 0.00–0.24 0.00–0.39 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.19 0.00–0.53 0.00–0.82 | 84% |
| GK saves | 2.67 1.24–4.11 0.85–4.50 | 3.03 1.48–4.59 1.05–5.01 | 5.71 2.71–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 36% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.