Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.692.803.49safe0.00–1.661.94–3.651.66–5.31safer0.00–1.911.71–3.881.18–5.79
Shots on target
91%
homeawaytotalprediction2.366.799.16safe0.50–4.235.05–8.545.55–12.76safer0.01–4.714.58–9.004.59–13.72
Total shots
97%
homeawaytotalprediction7.8417.7625.60safe3.92–11.7714.20–21.3318.12–33.09safer2.83–12.8613.24–22.2816.07–35.14
Shots in box
97%
homeawaytotalprediction4.3812.2116.59safe1.44–7.339.53–14.8910.97–22.22safer0.61–8.168.79–15.639.40–23.78
Blocked shots
81%
homeawaytotalprediction2.074.896.96safe0.19–3.953.23–6.543.42–10.49safer0.00–4.502.74–7.032.38–11.53
Corners
89%
homeawaytotalprediction2.706.879.57safe0.49–4.914.87–8.875.36–13.78safer0.00–5.494.34–9.404.25–14.89
Possession %
97%
homeawayprediction33.5566.07safe26.76–40.3459.28–72.85safer25.09–42.0157.61–74.52
Passes
99%
homeawaytotalprediction326602928safe259–393536–669794–1062safer241–411518–686759–1097
Pass accuracy %
99%
homeawayprediction64.7782.15safe60.74–68.8077.83–86.48safer59.45–70.0976.52–87.79
Fouls
67%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction13.7711.1324.90safe10.93–16.608.18–14.0719.11–30.68safer10.17–17.367.44–14.8217.61–32.18
Offsides
29%
24%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.311.733.04safe0.15–2.470.64–2.830.79–5.30safer0.00–2.770.35–3.120.20–5.89
Yellow cards
49%
20%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.371.874.24safe1.32–3.420.74–3.002.06–6.42safer1.05–3.680.45–3.291.51–6.98
Red cards
15%
76%
homeawaytotalprediction0.180.120.29safe0.02–0.340.00–0.300.00–0.64safer0.00–0.490.00–0.440.00–0.92
GK saves
80%
homeawaytotalprediction4.521.906.42safe3.09–5.960.34–3.453.43–9.41safer2.70–6.350.00–3.882.61–10.22
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.69 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.91 | 2.80 1.94–3.65 1.71–3.88 | 3.49 1.66–5.31 1.18–5.79 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 2.36 0.50–4.23 0.01–4.71 | 6.79 5.05–8.54 4.58–9.00 | 9.16 5.55–12.76 4.59–13.72 | 91% |
| Total shots | 7.84 3.92–11.77 2.83–12.86 | 17.76 14.20–21.33 13.24–22.28 | 25.60 18.12–33.09 16.07–35.14 | 97% |
| Shots in box | 4.38 1.44–7.33 0.61–8.16 | 12.21 9.53–14.89 8.79–15.63 | 16.59 10.97–22.22 9.40–23.78 | 97% |
| Blocked shots | 2.07 0.19–3.95 0.00–4.50 | 4.89 3.23–6.54 2.74–7.03 | 6.96 3.42–10.49 2.38–11.53 | 81% |
| Corners | 2.70 0.49–4.91 0.00–5.49 | 6.87 4.87–8.87 4.34–9.40 | 9.57 5.36–13.78 4.25–14.89 | 89% |
| Possession % | 33.55 26.76–40.34 25.09–42.01 | 66.07 59.28–72.85 57.61–74.52 | — | 97% |
| Passes | 326 259–393 241–411 | 602 536–669 518–686 | 928 794–1062 759–1097 | 99% |
| Pass accuracy % | 64.77 60.74–68.80 59.45–70.09 | 82.15 77.83–86.48 76.52–87.79 | — | 99% |
| Fouls | 13.77 10.93–16.60 10.17–17.36 | 11.13 8.18–14.07 7.44–14.82 | 24.90 19.11–30.68 17.61–32.18 | 67% 26% |
| Offsides | 1.31 0.15–2.47 0.00–2.77 | 1.73 0.64–2.83 0.35–3.12 | 3.04 0.79–5.30 0.20–5.89 | 29% 24% 47% |
| Yellow cards | 2.37 1.32–3.42 1.05–3.68 | 1.87 0.74–3.00 0.45–3.29 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 49% 20% 31% |
| Red cards | 0.18 0.02–0.34 0.00–0.49 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 15% 76% |
| GK saves | 4.52 3.09–5.96 2.70–6.35 | 1.90 0.34–3.45 0.00–3.88 | 6.42 3.43–9.41 2.61–10.22 | 80% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+