Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
33%
28%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction1.131.252.39safe0.17–2.100.40–2.110.57–4.21safer0.00–2.350.17–2.340.09–4.69
Shots on target
42%
15%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction3.803.877.67safe1.93–5.662.13–5.624.06–11.27safer1.44–6.151.67–6.083.11–12.23
Total shots
53%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction12.2511.4023.66safe8.33–16.187.84–14.9716.17–31.14safer7.24–17.276.88–15.9314.12–33.19
Shots in box
41%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction6.997.3014.29safe4.05–9.934.62–9.988.67–19.92safer3.22–10.763.88–10.727.10–21.48
Blocked shots
50%
16%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction3.262.756.01safe1.38–5.151.09–4.402.47–9.54safer0.84–5.690.60–4.891.44–10.58
Corners
42%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.554.699.24safe2.34–6.772.69–6.695.03–13.45safer1.77–7.342.16–7.223.92–14.56
Possession %
52%
44%
homeawayprediction50.9549.20safe44.16–57.7442.41–55.98safer42.49–59.4140.74–57.65
Passes
60%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction421389810safe353–488322–455676–943safer335–506305–473640–979
Pass accuracy %
28%
68%
homeawayprediction66.6070.71safe62.57–70.6366.38–75.03safer61.28–71.9265.07–76.34
Fouls
36%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction13.3114.6627.97safe10.47–16.1411.72–17.6122.19–33.75safer9.71–16.9010.97–18.3520.68–35.25
Offsides
29%
21%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.522.043.57safe0.36–2.690.95–3.141.32–5.82safer0.06–2.990.66–3.430.73–6.41
Yellow cards
36%
19%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction2.112.354.46safe1.06–3.161.22–3.482.29–6.64safer0.80–3.430.93–3.771.73–7.20
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.84
GK saves
42%
18%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.652.585.23safe1.22–4.091.02–4.132.24–8.22safer0.83–4.480.60–4.561.43–9.03
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.13 0.17–2.10 0.00–2.35 | 1.25 0.40–2.11 0.17–2.34 | 2.39 0.57–4.21 0.09–4.69 | 33% 28% 39% |
| Shots on target | 3.80 1.93–5.66 1.44–6.15 | 3.87 2.13–5.62 1.67–6.08 | 7.67 4.06–11.27 3.11–12.23 | 42% 15% 44% |
| Total shots | 12.25 8.33–16.18 7.24–17.27 | 11.40 7.84–14.97 6.88–15.93 | 23.66 16.17–31.14 14.12–33.19 | 53% 39% |
| Shots in box | 6.99 4.05–9.93 3.22–10.76 | 7.30 4.62–9.98 3.88–10.72 | 14.29 8.67–19.92 7.10–21.48 | 41% 48% |
| Blocked shots | 3.26 1.38–5.15 0.84–5.69 | 2.75 1.09–4.40 0.60–4.89 | 6.01 2.47–9.54 1.44–10.58 | 50% 16% 34% |
| Corners | 4.55 2.34–6.77 1.77–7.34 | 4.69 2.69–6.69 2.16–7.22 | 9.24 5.03–13.45 3.92–14.56 | 42% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 50.95 44.16–57.74 42.49–59.41 | 49.20 42.41–55.98 40.74–57.65 | — | 52% 44% |
| Passes | 421 353–488 335–506 | 389 322–455 305–473 | 810 676–943 640–979 | 60% 39% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.60 62.57–70.63 61.28–71.92 | 70.71 66.38–75.03 65.07–76.34 | — | 28% 68% |
| Fouls | 13.31 10.47–16.14 9.71–16.90 | 14.66 11.72–17.61 10.97–18.35 | 27.97 22.19–33.75 20.68–35.25 | 36% 56% |
| Offsides | 1.52 0.36–2.69 0.06–2.99 | 2.04 0.95–3.14 0.66–3.43 | 3.57 1.32–5.82 0.73–6.41 | 29% 21% 50% |
| Yellow cards | 2.11 1.06–3.16 0.80–3.43 | 2.35 1.22–3.48 0.93–3.77 | 4.46 2.29–6.64 1.73–7.20 | 36% 19% 45% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.65 1.22–4.09 0.83–4.48 | 2.58 1.02–4.13 0.60–4.56 | 5.23 2.24–8.22 1.43–9.03 | 42% 18% 40% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+