Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 30·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
23%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.052.85safe0.84–2.780.19–1.901.03–4.68safer0.59–3.030.00–2.130.55–5.16
Shots on target
76%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.053.379.41safe4.18–7.911.62–5.115.81–13.02safer3.69–8.401.16–5.584.85–13.97
Total shots
89%
homeawaytotalprediction17.4710.4127.88safe13.55–21.406.84–13.9720.39–35.37safer12.46–22.495.88–14.9318.34–37.42
Shots in box
83%
homeawaytotalprediction10.956.4817.43safe8.01–13.893.80–9.1611.81–23.05safer7.18–14.723.06–9.9010.24–24.62
Blocked shots
69%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.532.727.25safe2.65–6.411.06–4.373.71–10.78safer2.10–6.960.57–4.862.67–11.82
Corners
75%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction6.193.569.75safe3.98–8.401.56–5.565.53–13.96safer3.40–8.981.03–6.094.43–15.07
Possession %
70%
26%
homeawayprediction54.3744.54safe47.58–61.1637.76–51.33safer45.91–62.8336.08–53.00
Passes
77%
22%
homeawaytotalprediction477386863safe409–544320–453729–996safer391–562302–470693–1032
Pass accuracy %
67%
28%
homeawayprediction72.8468.87safe68.81–76.8764.55–73.19safer67.52–78.1663.24–74.50
Fouls
56%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction12.8111.5024.32safe9.98–15.658.56–14.4518.54–30.10safer9.22–16.417.81–15.2017.03–31.60
Offsides
46%
21%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction2.131.813.94safe0.97–3.290.72–2.911.69–6.20safer0.67–3.590.43–3.191.10–6.78
Yellow cards
37%
22%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction1.781.913.69safe0.74–2.830.78–3.041.51–5.87safer0.47–3.100.49–3.330.96–6.43
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.110.17safe0.00–0.220.00–0.300.00–0.52safer0.00–0.370.00–0.430.00–0.80
GK saves
24%
14%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.483.756.23safe1.04–3.922.20–5.313.24–9.23safer0.66–4.301.77–5.742.43–10.04
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.81 0.84–2.78 0.59–3.03 | 1.05 0.19–1.90 0.00–2.13 | 2.85 1.03–4.68 0.55–5.16 | 55% 23% 22% |
| Shots on target | 6.05 4.18–7.91 3.69–8.40 | 3.37 1.62–5.11 1.16–5.58 | 9.41 5.81–13.02 4.85–13.97 | 76% 15% |
| Total shots | 17.47 13.55–21.40 12.46–22.49 | 10.41 6.84–13.97 5.88–14.93 | 27.88 20.39–35.37 18.34–37.42 | 89% |
| Shots in box | 10.95 8.01–13.89 7.18–14.72 | 6.48 3.80–9.16 3.06–9.90 | 17.43 11.81–23.05 10.24–24.62 | 83% |
| Blocked shots | 4.53 2.65–6.41 2.10–6.96 | 2.72 1.06–4.37 0.57–4.86 | 7.25 3.71–10.78 2.67–11.82 | 69% 19% |
| Corners | 6.19 3.98–8.40 3.40–8.98 | 3.56 1.56–5.56 1.03–6.09 | 9.75 5.53–13.96 4.43–15.07 | 75% 15% |
| Possession % | 54.37 47.58–61.16 45.91–62.83 | 44.54 37.76–51.33 36.08–53.00 | — | 70% 26% |
| Passes | 477 409–544 391–562 | 386 320–453 302–470 | 863 729–996 693–1032 | 77% 22% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.84 68.81–76.87 67.52–78.16 | 68.87 64.55–73.19 63.24–74.50 | — | 67% 28% |
| Fouls | 12.81 9.98–15.65 9.22–16.41 | 11.50 8.56–14.45 7.81–15.20 | 24.32 18.54–30.10 17.03–31.60 | 56% 36% |
| Offsides | 2.13 0.97–3.29 0.67–3.59 | 1.81 0.72–2.91 0.43–3.19 | 3.94 1.69–6.20 1.10–6.78 | 46% 21% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 1.78 0.74–2.83 0.47–3.10 | 1.91 0.78–3.04 0.49–3.33 | 3.69 1.51–5.87 0.96–6.43 | 37% 22% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.48 1.04–3.92 0.66–4.30 | 3.75 2.20–5.31 1.77–5.74 | 6.23 3.24–9.23 2.43–10.04 | 24% 14% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.