Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
32%
27%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.171.372.54safe0.20–2.140.52–2.230.72–4.36safer0.00–2.390.29–2.450.24–4.84
Shots on target
33%
14%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction3.814.568.37safe1.94–5.672.82–6.314.77–11.98safer1.45–6.162.36–6.773.81–12.93
Total shots
27%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0314.6126.64safe8.10–15.9511.05–18.1719.15–34.13safer7.01–17.0510.09–19.1317.10–36.18
Shots in box
35%
55%
homeawaytotalprediction7.468.5015.95safe4.51–10.405.82–11.1810.33–21.58safer3.68–11.235.08–11.928.76–23.14
Blocked shots
36%
15%
48%
homeawaytotalprediction3.223.636.85safe1.34–5.111.97–5.283.32–10.39safer0.80–5.651.48–5.772.28–11.42
Corners
34%
53%
homeawaytotalprediction4.615.3910.00safe2.40–6.833.39–7.395.79–14.22safer1.83–7.402.86–7.924.68–15.32
Possession %
26%
70%
homeawayprediction44.8054.62safe38.01–51.5947.83–61.40safer36.34–53.2646.16–63.07
Passes
28%
71%
homeawaytotalprediction386454840safe319–453387–520706–974safer301–471370–538670–1009
Pass accuracy %
20%
77%
homeawayprediction67.0473.18safe63.01–71.0768.86–77.51safer61.71–72.3667.55–78.82
Fouls
37%
56%
homeawaytotalprediction12.4313.6726.10safe9.59–15.2710.72–16.6120.32–31.88safer8.84–16.029.98–17.3618.81–33.39
Offsides
50%
21%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction2.051.523.57safe0.89–3.210.43–2.611.31–5.82safer0.59–3.510.14–2.900.72–6.41
Yellow cards
33%
21%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.772.123.89safe0.72–2.820.99–3.251.71–6.07safer0.45–3.080.70–3.541.15–6.62
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.110.20safe0.00–0.250.00–0.290.00–0.55safer0.00–0.400.00–0.430.00–0.83
GK saves
51%
17%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction3.132.575.71safe1.70–4.571.02–4.132.72–8.70safer1.31–4.960.59–4.551.90–9.51
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.17 0.20–2.14 0.00–2.39 | 1.37 0.52–2.23 0.29–2.45 | 2.54 0.72–4.36 0.24–4.84 | 32% 27% 41% |
| Shots on target | 3.81 1.94–5.67 1.45–6.16 | 4.56 2.82–6.31 2.36–6.77 | 8.37 4.77–11.98 3.81–12.93 | 33% 14% 53% |
| Total shots | 12.03 8.10–15.95 7.01–17.05 | 14.61 11.05–18.17 10.09–19.13 | 26.64 19.15–34.13 17.10–36.18 | 27% 66% |
| Shots in box | 7.46 4.51–10.40 3.68–11.23 | 8.50 5.82–11.18 5.08–11.92 | 15.95 10.33–21.58 8.76–23.14 | 35% 55% |
| Blocked shots | 3.22 1.34–5.11 0.80–5.65 | 3.63 1.97–5.28 1.48–5.77 | 6.85 3.32–10.39 2.28–11.42 | 36% 15% 48% |
| Corners | 4.61 2.40–6.83 1.83–7.40 | 5.39 3.39–7.39 2.86–7.92 | 10.00 5.79–14.22 4.68–15.32 | 34% 53% |
| Possession % | 44.80 38.01–51.59 36.34–53.26 | 54.62 47.83–61.40 46.16–63.07 | — | 26% 70% |
| Passes | 386 319–453 301–471 | 454 387–520 370–538 | 840 706–974 670–1009 | 28% 71% |
| Pass accuracy % | 67.04 63.01–71.07 61.71–72.36 | 73.18 68.86–77.51 67.55–78.82 | — | 20% 77% |
| Fouls | 12.43 9.59–15.27 8.84–16.02 | 13.67 10.72–16.61 9.98–17.36 | 26.10 20.32–31.88 18.81–33.39 | 37% 56% |
| Offsides | 2.05 0.89–3.21 0.59–3.51 | 1.52 0.43–2.61 0.14–2.90 | 3.57 1.31–5.82 0.72–6.41 | 50% 21% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.77 0.72–2.82 0.45–3.08 | 2.12 0.99–3.25 0.70–3.54 | 3.89 1.71–6.07 1.15–6.62 | 33% 21% 46% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 3.13 1.70–4.57 1.31–4.96 | 2.57 1.02–4.13 0.59–4.55 | 5.71 2.72–8.70 1.90–9.51 | 51% 17% 33% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.