Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
48%
25%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.092.63safe0.57–2.510.24–1.940.81–4.46safer0.32–2.760.01–2.170.33–4.94
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.803.768.55safe2.93–6.662.02–5.504.95–12.16safer2.44–7.151.55–5.973.99–13.11
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction15.2211.1126.32safe11.29–19.147.54–14.6718.84–33.81safer10.20–20.236.58–15.6316.79–35.86
Shots in box
72%
20%
homeawaytotalprediction9.086.3315.41safe6.14–12.033.64–9.019.79–21.03safer5.31–12.862.91–9.748.22–22.60
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.933.006.93safe2.05–5.811.35–4.663.40–10.47safer1.50–6.360.86–5.152.36–11.50
Corners
59%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction5.274.059.31safe3.05–7.482.05–6.055.10–13.53safer2.48–8.051.51–6.583.99–14.63
Possession %
69%
27%
homeawayprediction54.7745.58safe47.98–61.5638.80–52.37safer46.31–63.2337.13–54.04
Passes
74%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction487410898safe420–555344–477764–1031safer402–573326–494728–1067
Pass accuracy %
50%
45%
homeawayprediction73.3272.81safe69.29–77.3568.49–77.14safer68.00–78.6467.18–78.45
Fouls
61%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6111.7125.31safe10.77–16.458.76–14.6519.53–31.10safer10.02–17.208.01–15.4018.03–32.60
Offsides
31%
23%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.481.833.31safe0.32–2.640.74–2.931.06–5.57safer0.02–2.940.45–3.220.47–6.15
Yellow cards
39%
20%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction2.152.214.36safe1.10–3.201.08–3.342.19–6.54safer0.84–3.470.79–3.631.63–7.10
Red cards
79%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.140.25safe0.00–0.280.00–0.320.00–0.60safer0.00–0.430.00–0.460.00–0.88
GK saves
32%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.603.215.82safe1.17–4.041.66–4.772.82–8.81safer0.78–4.431.23–5.192.01–9.62
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.54 0.57–2.51 0.32–2.76 | 1.09 0.24–1.94 0.01–2.17 | 2.63 0.81–4.46 0.33–4.94 | 48% 25% 27% |
| Shots on target | 4.80 2.93–6.66 2.44–7.15 | 3.76 2.02–5.50 1.55–5.97 | 8.55 4.95–12.16 3.99–13.11 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 15.22 11.29–19.14 10.20–20.23 | 11.11 7.54–14.67 6.58–15.63 | 26.32 18.84–33.81 16.79–35.86 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 9.08 6.14–12.03 5.31–12.86 | 6.33 3.64–9.01 2.91–9.74 | 15.41 9.79–21.03 8.22–22.60 | 72% 20% |
| Blocked shots | 3.93 2.05–5.81 1.50–6.36 | 3.00 1.35–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 6.93 3.40–10.47 2.36–11.50 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.27 3.05–7.48 2.48–8.05 | 4.05 2.05–6.05 1.51–6.58 | 9.31 5.10–13.53 3.99–14.63 | 59% 29% |
| Possession % | 54.77 47.98–61.56 46.31–63.23 | 45.58 38.80–52.37 37.13–54.04 | — | 69% 27% |
| Passes | 487 420–555 402–573 | 410 344–477 326–494 | 898 764–1031 728–1067 | 74% 26% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.32 69.29–77.35 68.00–78.64 | 72.81 68.49–77.14 67.18–78.45 | — | 50% 45% |
| Fouls | 13.61 10.77–16.45 10.02–17.20 | 11.71 8.76–14.65 8.01–15.40 | 25.31 19.53–31.10 18.03–32.60 | 61% 32% |
| Offsides | 1.48 0.32–2.64 0.02–2.94 | 1.83 0.74–2.93 0.45–3.22 | 3.31 1.06–5.57 0.47–6.15 | 31% 23% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.15 1.10–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.36 2.19–6.54 1.63–7.10 | 39% 20% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.14 0.00–0.32 0.00–0.46 | 0.25 0.00–0.60 0.00–0.88 | 79% |
| GK saves | 2.60 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.21 1.66–4.77 1.23–5.19 | 5.82 2.82–8.81 2.01–9.62 | 32% 16% 52% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+