Predicted match statistics
Goals
26%
23%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction1.231.773.00safe0.26–2.200.92–2.631.18–4.82safer0.01–2.450.69–2.860.70–5.30
Shots on target
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.105.179.28safe2.24–5.973.43–6.925.67–12.88safer1.75–6.462.97–7.384.72–13.84
Total shots
46%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1613.1426.30safe9.24–17.099.57–16.7018.81–33.79safer8.15–18.188.61–17.6616.76–35.84
Shots in box
34%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction7.909.1417.04safe4.95–10.846.46–11.8211.42–22.66safer4.13–11.675.73–12.569.85–24.23
Blocked shots
35%
14%
51%
homeawaytotalprediction3.524.107.62safe1.64–5.402.44–5.754.08–11.15safer1.10–5.951.95–6.243.05–12.19
Corners
41%
13%
45%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.599.04safe2.24–6.662.59–6.594.82–13.25safer1.66–7.242.05–7.123.72–14.36
Possession %
37%
58%
homeawayprediction47.9452.43safe41.15–54.7345.65–59.22safer39.48–56.4043.98–60.89
Passes
36%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction473517989safe405–540450–583856–1123safer387–558433–601820–1159
Pass accuracy %
17%
80%
homeawayprediction73.2980.18safe69.26–77.3275.86–84.50safer67.97–78.6174.55–85.81
Fouls
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction13.2511.2724.52safe10.41–16.098.32–14.2118.74–30.30safer9.66–16.847.57–14.9617.23–31.80
Offsides
41%
25%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction1.541.372.90safe0.38–2.700.27–2.460.65–5.16safer0.08–3.000.00–2.750.06–5.75
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.172.014.19safe1.12–3.220.89–3.142.01–6.36safer0.86–3.490.59–3.431.45–6.92
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.110.21safe0.00–0.270.00–0.290.00–0.56safer0.00–0.420.00–0.430.00–0.84
GK saves
48%
16%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction3.192.826.01safe1.75–4.621.27–4.383.02–9.00safer1.36–5.010.84–4.802.21–9.82
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.23 0.26–2.20 0.01–2.45 | 1.77 0.92–2.63 0.69–2.86 | 3.00 1.18–4.82 0.70–5.30 | 26% 23% 50% |
| Shots on target | 4.10 2.24–5.97 1.75–6.46 | 5.17 3.43–6.92 2.97–7.38 | 9.28 5.67–12.88 4.72–13.84 | 30% 57% |
| Total shots | 13.16 9.24–17.09 8.15–18.18 | 13.14 9.57–16.70 8.61–17.66 | 26.30 18.81–33.79 16.76–35.84 | 46% 46% |
| Shots in box | 7.90 4.95–10.84 4.13–11.67 | 9.14 6.46–11.82 5.73–12.56 | 17.04 11.42–22.66 9.85–24.23 | 34% 57% |
| Blocked shots | 3.52 1.64–5.40 1.10–5.95 | 4.10 2.44–5.75 1.95–6.24 | 7.62 4.08–11.15 3.05–12.19 | 35% 14% 51% |
| Corners | 4.45 2.24–6.66 1.66–7.24 | 4.59 2.59–6.59 2.05–7.12 | 9.04 4.82–13.25 3.72–14.36 | 41% 13% 45% |
| Possession % | 47.94 41.15–54.73 39.48–56.40 | 52.43 45.65–59.22 43.98–60.89 | — | 37% 58% |
| Passes | 473 405–540 387–558 | 517 450–583 433–601 | 989 856–1123 820–1159 | 36% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.29 69.26–77.32 67.97–78.61 | 80.18 75.86–84.50 74.55–85.81 | — | 17% 80% |
| Fouls | 13.25 10.41–16.09 9.66–16.84 | 11.27 8.32–14.21 7.57–14.96 | 24.52 18.74–30.30 17.23–31.80 | 62% 31% |
| Offsides | 1.54 0.38–2.70 0.08–3.00 | 1.37 0.27–2.46 0.00–2.75 | 2.90 0.65–5.16 0.06–5.75 | 41% 25% 34% |
| Yellow cards | 2.17 1.12–3.22 0.86–3.49 | 2.01 0.89–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 4.19 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.11 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.43 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 3.19 1.75–4.62 1.36–5.01 | 2.82 1.27–4.38 0.84–4.80 | 6.01 3.02–9.00 2.21–9.82 | 48% 16% 36% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+