Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
55%
25%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction1.560.812.37safe0.59–2.530.00–1.660.55–4.19safer0.34–2.780.00–1.890.07–4.67
Shots on target
71%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction4.872.837.70safe3.01–6.731.08–4.574.09–11.30safer2.52–7.220.62–5.043.14–12.26
Total shots
86%
homeawaytotalprediction14.799.1523.94safe10.87–18.725.58–12.7116.45–31.43safer9.78–19.814.62–13.6714.40–33.48
Shots in box
81%
homeawaytotalprediction9.545.5915.13safe6.60–12.482.91–8.279.51–20.75safer5.77–13.312.17–9.017.94–22.32
Blocked shots
68%
14%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction3.822.196.01safe1.94–5.700.53–3.842.47–9.54safer1.40–6.250.04–4.331.44–10.58
Corners
72%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction5.783.519.29safe3.57–7.991.51–5.515.07–13.50safer2.99–8.570.98–6.043.97–14.61
Possession %
87%
homeawayprediction60.3239.90safe53.53–67.1133.11–46.68safer51.86–68.7831.44–48.35
Passes
92%
homeawaytotalprediction506337843safe439–573271–404710–977safer420–591254–421674–1013
Pass accuracy %
72%
23%
homeawayprediction74.9769.83safe70.94–79.0065.51–74.16safer69.64–80.2964.20–75.47
Fouls
35%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4114.9228.32safe10.57–16.2411.97–17.8622.54–34.10safer9.81–17.0011.22–18.6121.04–35.61
Offsides
54%
22%
24%
homeawaytotalprediction1.941.233.17safe0.78–3.100.14–2.320.92–5.42safer0.48–3.400.00–2.610.33–6.01
Yellow cards
21%
17%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.864.53safe0.63–2.721.73–3.992.36–6.71safer0.36–2.991.44–4.281.80–7.27
Red cards
76%
14%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.170.29safe0.00–0.280.00–0.360.00–0.64safer0.00–0.430.00–0.490.00–0.92
GK saves
22%
16%
62%
homeawaytotalprediction2.023.255.27safe0.59–3.461.69–4.802.28–8.26safer0.20–3.851.27–5.231.46–9.07
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.56 0.59–2.53 0.34–2.78 | 0.81 0.00–1.66 0.00–1.89 | 2.37 0.55–4.19 0.07–4.67 | 55% 25% 19% |
| Shots on target | 4.87 3.01–6.73 2.52–7.22 | 2.83 1.08–4.57 0.62–5.04 | 7.70 4.09–11.30 3.14–12.26 | 71% 18% |
| Total shots | 14.79 10.87–18.72 9.78–19.81 | 9.15 5.58–12.71 4.62–13.67 | 23.94 16.45–31.43 14.40–33.48 | 86% |
| Shots in box | 9.54 6.60–12.48 5.77–13.31 | 5.59 2.91–8.27 2.17–9.01 | 15.13 9.51–20.75 7.94–22.32 | 81% |
| Blocked shots | 3.82 1.94–5.70 1.40–6.25 | 2.19 0.53–3.84 0.04–4.33 | 6.01 2.47–9.54 1.44–10.58 | 68% 14% 19% |
| Corners | 5.78 3.57–7.99 2.99–8.57 | 3.51 1.51–5.51 0.98–6.04 | 9.29 5.07–13.50 3.97–14.61 | 72% 18% |
| Possession % | 60.32 53.53–67.11 51.86–68.78 | 39.90 33.11–46.68 31.44–48.35 | — | 87% |
| Passes | 506 439–573 420–591 | 337 271–404 254–421 | 843 710–977 674–1013 | 92% |
| Pass accuracy % | 74.97 70.94–79.00 69.64–80.29 | 69.83 65.51–74.16 64.20–75.47 | — | 72% 23% |
| Fouls | 13.41 10.57–16.24 9.81–17.00 | 14.92 11.97–17.86 11.22–18.61 | 28.32 22.54–34.10 21.04–35.61 | 35% 57% |
| Offsides | 1.94 0.78–3.10 0.48–3.40 | 1.23 0.14–2.32 0.00–2.61 | 3.17 0.92–5.42 0.33–6.01 | 54% 22% 24% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.63–2.72 0.36–2.99 | 2.86 1.73–3.99 1.44–4.28 | 4.53 2.36–6.71 1.80–7.27 | 21% 17% 62% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.17 0.00–0.36 0.00–0.49 | 0.29 0.00–0.64 0.00–0.92 | 76% 14% |
| GK saves | 2.02 0.59–3.46 0.20–3.85 | 3.25 1.69–4.80 1.27–5.23 | 5.27 2.28–8.26 1.46–9.07 | 22% 16% 62% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.