Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.222.68safe0.49–2.430.36–2.070.86–4.50safer0.24–2.680.13–2.300.38–4.98
Shots on target
57%
13%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction4.733.718.44safe2.87–6.591.97–5.454.84–12.05safer2.38–7.081.50–5.923.88–13.00
Total shots
68%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction14.1011.2825.38safe10.17–18.027.72–14.8417.89–32.87safer9.08–19.116.76–15.8015.84–34.92
Shots in box
69%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction9.466.9816.45safe6.52–12.414.30–9.6610.82–22.07safer5.69–13.243.56–10.409.26–23.64
Blocked shots
57%
15%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction3.642.686.32safe1.76–5.521.03–4.342.79–9.86safer1.21–6.060.54–4.831.75–10.89
Corners
58%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction5.454.339.79safe3.24–7.672.33–6.335.57–14.00safer2.67–8.241.80–6.874.47–15.11
Possession %
50%
46%
homeawayprediction49.9749.13safe43.18–56.7642.35–55.92safer41.51–58.4340.68–57.59
Passes
58%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction438415854safe371–506349–482720–987safer353–524331–499684–1023
Pass accuracy %
46%
49%
homeawayprediction69.3669.71safe65.33–73.3965.39–74.04safer64.04–74.6864.08–75.35
Fouls
38%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction11.7812.8324.61safe8.95–14.629.88–15.7718.83–30.39safer8.19–15.389.13–16.5217.32–31.90
Offsides
48%
21%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction2.041.633.67safe0.88–3.200.54–2.721.42–5.93safer0.58–3.500.25–3.010.83–6.52
Yellow cards
32%
21%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction1.672.043.71safe0.62–2.720.92–3.171.53–5.89safer0.35–2.980.62–3.470.98–6.45
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.100.17safe0.00–0.230.00–0.290.00–0.52safer0.00–0.380.00–0.420.00–0.80
GK saves
33%
17%
50%
homeawaytotalprediction2.613.115.72safe1.17–4.041.55–4.672.73–8.71safer0.78–4.431.13–5.091.91–9.52
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.43 0.24–2.68 | 1.22 0.36–2.07 0.13–2.30 | 2.68 0.86–4.50 0.38–4.98 | 43% 26% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.73 2.87–6.59 2.38–7.08 | 3.71 1.97–5.45 1.50–5.92 | 8.44 4.84–12.05 3.88–13.00 | 57% 13% 30% |
| Total shots | 14.10 10.17–18.02 9.08–19.11 | 11.28 7.72–14.84 6.76–15.80 | 25.38 17.89–32.87 15.84–34.92 | 68% 25% |
| Shots in box | 9.46 6.52–12.41 5.69–13.24 | 6.98 4.30–9.66 3.56–10.40 | 16.45 10.82–22.07 9.26–23.64 | 69% 23% |
| Blocked shots | 3.64 1.76–5.52 1.21–6.06 | 2.68 1.03–4.34 0.54–4.83 | 6.32 2.79–9.86 1.75–10.89 | 57% 15% 28% |
| Corners | 5.45 3.24–7.67 2.67–8.24 | 4.33 2.33–6.33 1.80–6.87 | 9.79 5.57–14.00 4.47–15.11 | 58% 30% |
| Possession % | 49.97 43.18–56.76 41.51–58.43 | 49.13 42.35–55.92 40.68–57.59 | — | 50% 46% |
| Passes | 438 371–506 353–524 | 415 349–482 331–499 | 854 720–987 684–1023 | 58% 42% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.36 65.33–73.39 64.04–74.68 | 69.71 65.39–74.04 64.08–75.35 | — | 46% 49% |
| Fouls | 11.78 8.95–14.62 8.19–15.38 | 12.83 9.88–15.77 9.13–16.52 | 24.61 18.83–30.39 17.32–31.90 | 38% 54% |
| Offsides | 2.04 0.88–3.20 0.58–3.50 | 1.63 0.54–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 3.67 1.42–5.93 0.83–6.52 | 48% 21% 31% |
| Yellow cards | 1.67 0.62–2.72 0.35–2.98 | 2.04 0.92–3.17 0.62–3.47 | 3.71 1.53–5.89 0.98–6.45 | 32% 21% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.10 0.00–0.29 0.00–0.42 | 0.17 0.00–0.52 0.00–0.80 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 3.11 1.55–4.67 1.13–5.09 | 5.72 2.73–8.71 1.91–9.52 | 33% 17% 50% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+