Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 31·Predicted match statistics
Goals
80%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction2.710.693.40safe1.74–3.680.00–1.541.58–5.22safer1.49–3.930.00–1.771.10–5.70
Shots on target
93%
homeawaytotalprediction7.152.289.43safe5.29–9.020.54–4.025.83–13.04safer4.80–9.500.07–4.494.87–13.99
Total shots
99%
homeawaytotalprediction20.137.5627.69safe16.20–24.054.00–11.1220.20–35.17safer15.11–25.143.04–12.0818.15–37.22
Shots in box
98%
homeawaytotalprediction13.274.3117.57safe10.33–16.211.63–6.9911.95–23.20safer9.50–17.040.89–7.7210.38–24.77
Blocked shots
88%
homeawaytotalprediction5.091.636.72safe3.21–6.970.00–3.293.19–10.26safer2.66–7.510.00–3.782.15–11.29
Corners
92%
homeawaytotalprediction7.362.529.88safe5.14–9.570.52–4.525.67–14.10safer4.57–10.150.00–5.064.56–15.20
Possession %
92%
homeawayprediction61.9637.65safe55.17–68.7530.87–44.44safer53.50–70.4229.20–46.11
Passes
98%
homeawaytotalprediction618375993safe551–685309–442859–1127safer533–703291–459824–1163
Pass accuracy %
90%
homeawayprediction83.2272.59safe79.19–87.2568.27–76.92safer77.90–88.5466.96–78.23
Fouls
32%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction11.5513.3324.88safe8.72–14.3910.38–16.2719.10–30.66safer7.96–15.159.64–17.0217.60–32.17
Offsides
50%
24%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.172.88safe0.55–2.870.08–2.270.63–5.14safer0.25–3.170.00–2.550.04–5.73
Yellow cards
22%
19%
59%
homeawaytotalprediction1.512.483.99safe0.46–2.561.35–3.611.81–6.17safer0.19–2.821.06–3.901.25–6.72
Red cards
83%
homeawaytotalprediction0.060.140.20safe0.00–0.220.00–0.330.00–0.55safer0.00–0.370.00–0.460.00–0.83
GK saves
80%
homeawaytotalprediction1.614.125.72safe0.17–3.042.56–5.672.73–8.72safer0.00–3.432.14–6.101.92–9.53
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 2.71 1.74–3.68 1.49–3.93 | 0.69 0.00–1.54 0.00–1.77 | 3.40 1.58–5.22 1.10–5.70 | 80% 13% |
| Shots on target | 7.15 5.29–9.02 4.80–9.50 | 2.28 0.54–4.02 0.07–4.49 | 9.43 5.83–13.04 4.87–13.99 | 93% |
| Total shots | 20.13 16.20–24.05 15.11–25.14 | 7.56 4.00–11.12 3.04–12.08 | 27.69 20.20–35.17 18.15–37.22 | 99% |
| Shots in box | 13.27 10.33–16.21 9.50–17.04 | 4.31 1.63–6.99 0.89–7.72 | 17.57 11.95–23.20 10.38–24.77 | 98% |
| Blocked shots | 5.09 3.21–6.97 2.66–7.51 | 1.63 0.00–3.29 0.00–3.78 | 6.72 3.19–10.26 2.15–11.29 | 88% |
| Corners | 7.36 5.14–9.57 4.57–10.15 | 2.52 0.52–4.52 0.00–5.06 | 9.88 5.67–14.10 4.56–15.20 | 92% |
| Possession % | 61.96 55.17–68.75 53.50–70.42 | 37.65 30.87–44.44 29.20–46.11 | — | 92% |
| Passes | 618 551–685 533–703 | 375 309–442 291–459 | 993 859–1127 824–1163 | 98% |
| Pass accuracy % | 83.22 79.19–87.25 77.90–88.54 | 72.59 68.27–76.92 66.96–78.23 | — | 90% |
| Fouls | 11.55 8.72–14.39 7.96–15.15 | 13.33 10.38–16.27 9.64–17.02 | 24.88 19.10–30.66 17.60–32.17 | 32% 60% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.17 0.08–2.27 0.00–2.55 | 2.88 0.63–5.14 0.04–5.73 | 50% 24% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 1.51 0.46–2.56 0.19–2.82 | 2.48 1.35–3.61 1.06–3.90 | 3.99 1.81–6.17 1.25–6.72 | 22% 19% 59% |
| Red cards | 0.06 0.00–0.22 0.00–0.37 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.20 0.00–0.55 0.00–0.83 | 83% |
| GK saves | 1.61 0.17–3.04 0.00–3.43 | 4.12 2.56–5.67 2.14–6.10 | 5.72 2.73–8.72 1.92–9.53 | 80% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+