Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
22%
25%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction0.921.562.48safe0.00–1.890.71–2.420.66–4.31safer0.00–2.140.48–2.640.18–4.79
Shots on target
22%
66%
homeawaytotalprediction3.154.827.97safe1.29–5.023.08–6.564.37–11.58safer0.80–5.512.61–7.033.41–12.54
Total shots
24%
70%
homeawaytotalprediction10.8313.8724.70safe6.91–14.7610.31–17.4317.22–32.19safer5.82–15.859.35–18.3915.17–34.24
Shots in box
19%
73%
homeawaytotalprediction5.868.6814.53safe2.91–8.806.00–11.368.91–20.16safer2.08–9.635.26–12.107.34–21.72
Blocked shots
33%
16%
52%
homeawaytotalprediction2.813.426.23safe0.93–4.691.77–5.072.69–9.76safer0.38–5.241.27–5.561.66–10.80
Corners
30%
57%
homeawaytotalprediction4.025.079.09safe1.80–6.233.07–7.074.88–13.30safer1.23–6.802.54–7.613.77–14.41
Possession %
20%
76%
homeawayprediction43.2456.41safe36.45–50.0349.63–63.20safer34.78–51.7047.96–64.87
Passes
15%
85%
homeawaytotalprediction412537949safe345–480471–603816–1083safer327–498453–621780–1119
Pass accuracy %
86%
homeawayprediction69.0477.95safe65.01–73.0773.62–82.27safer63.72–74.3672.31–83.58
Fouls
45%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction12.7312.8325.56safe9.89–15.579.88–15.7719.78–31.34safer9.14–16.329.13–16.5218.27–32.84
Offsides
39%
23%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction1.641.633.27safe0.48–2.800.54–2.721.02–5.53safer0.18–3.100.25–3.010.43–6.12
Yellow cards
38%
20%
42%
homeawaytotalprediction2.082.214.29safe1.03–3.131.08–3.342.11–6.46safer0.76–3.390.79–3.631.55–7.02
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.110.120.23safe0.00–0.270.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.420.00–0.440.00–0.86
GK saves
57%
16%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.415.73safe1.89–4.760.85–3.972.74–8.73safer1.50–5.150.43–4.391.93–9.54
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 0.92 0.00–1.89 0.00–2.14 | 1.56 0.71–2.42 0.48–2.64 | 2.48 0.66–4.31 0.18–4.79 | 22% 25% 52% |
| Shots on target | 3.15 1.29–5.02 0.80–5.51 | 4.82 3.08–6.56 2.61–7.03 | 7.97 4.37–11.58 3.41–12.54 | 22% 66% |
| Total shots | 10.83 6.91–14.76 5.82–15.85 | 13.87 10.31–17.43 9.35–18.39 | 24.70 17.22–32.19 15.17–34.24 | 24% 70% |
| Shots in box | 5.86 2.91–8.80 2.08–9.63 | 8.68 6.00–11.36 5.26–12.10 | 14.53 8.91–20.16 7.34–21.72 | 19% 73% |
| Blocked shots | 2.81 0.93–4.69 0.38–5.24 | 3.42 1.77–5.07 1.27–5.56 | 6.23 2.69–9.76 1.66–10.80 | 33% 16% 52% |
| Corners | 4.02 1.80–6.23 1.23–6.80 | 5.07 3.07–7.07 2.54–7.61 | 9.09 4.88–13.30 3.77–14.41 | 30% 57% |
| Possession % | 43.24 36.45–50.03 34.78–51.70 | 56.41 49.63–63.20 47.96–64.87 | — | 20% 76% |
| Passes | 412 345–480 327–498 | 537 471–603 453–621 | 949 816–1083 780–1119 | 15% 85% |
| Pass accuracy % | 69.04 65.01–73.07 63.72–74.36 | 77.95 73.62–82.27 72.31–83.58 | — | 86% |
| Fouls | 12.73 9.89–15.57 9.14–16.32 | 12.83 9.88–15.77 9.13–16.52 | 25.56 19.78–31.34 18.27–32.84 | 45% 47% |
| Offsides | 1.64 0.48–2.80 0.18–3.10 | 1.63 0.54–2.72 0.25–3.01 | 3.27 1.02–5.53 0.43–6.12 | 39% 23% 38% |
| Yellow cards | 2.08 1.03–3.13 0.76–3.39 | 2.21 1.08–3.34 0.79–3.63 | 4.29 2.11–6.46 1.55–7.02 | 38% 20% 42% |
| Red cards | 0.11 0.00–0.27 0.00–0.42 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.23 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.86 | 81% |
| GK saves | 3.32 1.89–4.76 1.50–5.15 | 2.41 0.85–3.97 0.43–4.39 | 5.73 2.74–8.73 1.93–9.54 | 57% 16% 27% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+