Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
45%
26%
28%
homeawaytotalprediction1.441.092.53safe0.47–2.410.23–1.940.71–4.35safer0.22–2.660.00–2.170.23–4.83
Shots on target
64%
23%
homeawaytotalprediction4.933.368.29safe3.07–6.801.62–5.104.69–11.90safer2.58–7.281.15–5.573.73–12.85
Total shots
76%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction14.3810.3124.69safe10.46–18.316.75–13.8717.20–32.18safer9.37–19.405.79–14.8315.15–34.23
Shots in box
63%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction8.466.6315.09safe5.52–11.413.95–9.319.47–20.72safer4.69–12.233.21–10.057.90–22.28
Blocked shots
56%
15%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction3.692.796.48safe1.81–5.571.14–4.442.95–10.02safer1.27–6.120.64–4.931.91–11.05
Corners
62%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction5.594.109.69safe3.38–7.802.10–6.105.47–13.90safer2.80–8.381.56–6.634.37–15.01
Possession %
79%
18%
homeawayprediction57.7942.99safe51.00–64.5836.21–49.78safer49.33–66.2534.53–51.45
Passes
93%
homeawaytotalprediction543367910safe476–610301–434776–1044safer457–628283–451741–1079
Pass accuracy %
65%
30%
homeawayprediction73.9570.49safe69.92–77.9766.17–74.81safer68.62–79.2764.86–76.12
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction12.0112.4124.42safe9.17–14.859.46–15.3518.64–30.20safer8.42–15.618.72–16.1017.13–31.71
Offsides
47%
24%
29%
homeawaytotalprediction1.711.293.00safe0.55–2.870.20–2.390.75–5.26safer0.25–3.170.00–2.670.16–5.85
Yellow cards
36%
23%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.743.34safe0.56–2.660.61–2.871.17–5.52safer0.29–2.920.32–3.160.61–6.08
Red cards
85%
homeawaytotalprediction0.070.090.16safe0.00–0.230.00–0.280.00–0.51safer0.00–0.380.00–0.410.00–0.79
GK saves
25%
15%
60%
homeawaytotalprediction2.393.545.93safe0.95–3.831.99–5.102.94–8.92safer0.57–4.211.56–5.522.13–9.74
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.44 0.47–2.41 0.22–2.66 | 1.09 0.23–1.94 0.00–2.17 | 2.53 0.71–4.35 0.23–4.83 | 45% 26% 28% |
| Shots on target | 4.93 3.07–6.80 2.58–7.28 | 3.36 1.62–5.10 1.15–5.57 | 8.29 4.69–11.90 3.73–12.85 | 64% 23% |
| Total shots | 14.38 10.46–18.31 9.37–19.40 | 10.31 6.75–13.87 5.79–14.83 | 24.69 17.20–32.18 15.15–34.23 | 76% 18% |
| Shots in box | 8.46 5.52–11.41 4.69–12.23 | 6.63 3.95–9.31 3.21–10.05 | 15.09 9.47–20.72 7.90–22.28 | 63% 27% |
| Blocked shots | 3.69 1.81–5.57 1.27–6.12 | 2.79 1.14–4.44 0.64–4.93 | 6.48 2.95–10.02 1.91–11.05 | 56% 15% 29% |
| Corners | 5.59 3.38–7.80 2.80–8.38 | 4.10 2.10–6.10 1.56–6.63 | 9.69 5.47–13.90 4.37–15.01 | 62% 26% |
| Possession % | 57.79 51.00–64.58 49.33–66.25 | 42.99 36.21–49.78 34.53–51.45 | — | 79% 18% |
| Passes | 543 476–610 457–628 | 367 301–434 283–451 | 910 776–1044 741–1079 | 93% |
| Pass accuracy % | 73.95 69.92–77.97 68.62–79.27 | 70.49 66.17–74.81 64.86–76.12 | — | 65% 30% |
| Fouls | 12.01 9.17–14.85 8.42–15.61 | 12.41 9.46–15.35 8.72–16.10 | 24.42 18.64–30.20 17.13–31.71 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.71 0.55–2.87 0.25–3.17 | 1.29 0.20–2.39 0.00–2.67 | 3.00 0.75–5.26 0.16–5.85 | 47% 24% 29% |
| Yellow cards | 1.61 0.56–2.66 0.29–2.92 | 1.74 0.61–2.87 0.32–3.16 | 3.34 1.17–5.52 0.61–6.08 | 36% 23% 41% |
| Red cards | 0.07 0.00–0.23 0.00–0.38 | 0.09 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.41 | 0.16 0.00–0.51 0.00–0.79 | 85% |
| GK saves | 2.39 0.95–3.83 0.57–4.21 | 3.54 1.99–5.10 1.56–5.52 | 5.93 2.94–8.92 2.13–9.74 | 25% 15% 60% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.