Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
40%
28%
32%
homeawaytotalprediction1.271.112.37safe0.30–2.240.25–1.960.55–4.20safer0.05–2.490.02–2.190.07–4.68
Shots on target
50%
14%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction4.353.828.17safe2.49–6.212.08–5.564.56–11.77safer2.00–6.701.61–6.033.61–12.73
Total shots
60%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction13.4111.6725.08safe9.48–17.338.11–15.2317.59–32.57safer8.39–18.427.15–16.1915.54–34.62
Shots in box
56%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction7.726.6314.35safe4.78–10.663.95–9.318.72–19.97safer3.95–11.493.21–10.047.16–21.54
Blocked shots
54%
16%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction3.342.565.90safe1.45–5.220.91–4.222.36–9.43safer0.91–5.760.42–4.711.33–10.47
Corners
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.454.158.60safe2.23–6.662.15–6.154.39–12.81safer1.66–7.231.62–6.693.28–13.92
Possession %
36%
60%
homeawayprediction47.8753.08safe41.08–54.6646.30–59.87safer39.41–56.3344.62–61.54
Passes
35%
64%
homeawaytotalprediction400445845safe333–468378–511712–979safer315–486361–529676–1015
Pass accuracy %
25%
71%
homeawayprediction68.8573.66safe64.82–72.8869.33–77.98safer63.53–74.1768.02–79.29
Fouls
39%
54%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0514.0227.07safe10.22–15.8911.07–16.9621.29–32.85safer9.46–16.6510.32–17.7119.79–34.36
Offsides
33%
22%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction1.611.883.49safe0.45–2.770.79–2.981.24–5.75safer0.15–3.070.50–3.260.65–6.34
Yellow cards
41%
20%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction2.182.154.32safe1.13–3.231.02–3.282.15–6.50safer0.86–3.490.73–3.571.59–7.06
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.120.110.23safe0.00–0.280.00–0.300.00–0.58safer0.00–0.430.00–0.430.00–0.86
GK saves
35%
17%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.542.905.44safe1.11–3.981.34–4.452.45–8.43safer0.72–4.370.92–4.881.64–9.25
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.27 0.30–2.24 0.05–2.49 | 1.11 0.25–1.96 0.02–2.19 | 2.37 0.55–4.20 0.07–4.68 | 40% 28% 32% |
| Shots on target | 4.35 2.49–6.21 2.00–6.70 | 3.82 2.08–5.56 1.61–6.03 | 8.17 4.56–11.77 3.61–12.73 | 50% 14% 36% |
| Total shots | 13.41 9.48–17.33 8.39–18.42 | 11.67 8.11–15.23 7.15–16.19 | 25.08 17.59–32.57 15.54–34.62 | 60% 33% |
| Shots in box | 7.72 4.78–10.66 3.95–11.49 | 6.63 3.95–9.31 3.21–10.04 | 14.35 8.72–19.97 7.16–21.54 | 56% 34% |
| Blocked shots | 3.34 1.45–5.22 0.91–5.76 | 2.56 0.91–4.22 0.42–4.71 | 5.90 2.36–9.43 1.33–10.47 | 54% 16% 30% |
| Corners | 4.45 2.23–6.66 1.66–7.23 | 4.15 2.15–6.15 1.62–6.69 | 8.60 4.39–12.81 3.28–13.92 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Possession % | 47.87 41.08–54.66 39.41–56.33 | 53.08 46.30–59.87 44.62–61.54 | — | 36% 60% |
| Passes | 400 333–468 315–486 | 445 378–511 361–529 | 845 712–979 676–1015 | 35% 64% |
| Pass accuracy % | 68.85 64.82–72.88 63.53–74.17 | 73.66 69.33–77.98 68.02–79.29 | — | 25% 71% |
| Fouls | 13.05 10.22–15.89 9.46–16.65 | 14.02 11.07–16.96 10.32–17.71 | 27.07 21.29–32.85 19.79–34.36 | 39% 54% |
| Offsides | 1.61 0.45–2.77 0.15–3.07 | 1.88 0.79–2.98 0.50–3.26 | 3.49 1.24–5.75 0.65–6.34 | 33% 22% 44% |
| Yellow cards | 2.18 1.13–3.23 0.86–3.49 | 2.15 1.02–3.28 0.73–3.57 | 4.32 2.15–6.50 1.59–7.06 | 41% 20% 40% |
| Red cards | 0.12 0.00–0.28 0.00–0.43 | 0.11 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.43 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.54 1.11–3.98 0.72–4.37 | 2.90 1.34–4.45 0.92–4.88 | 5.44 2.45–8.43 1.64–9.25 | 35% 17% 47% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.