Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 32·Predicted match statistics
Goals
56%
23%
21%
homeawaytotalprediction1.770.972.74safe0.80–2.740.12–1.830.92–4.57safer0.55–2.990.00–2.060.44–5.05
Shots on target
73%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction5.483.188.67safe3.62–7.341.44–4.935.06–12.27safer3.13–7.830.98–5.394.11–13.23
Total shots
83%
homeawaytotalprediction15.7610.4226.18safe11.84–19.696.86–13.9818.70–33.67safer10.75–20.785.90–14.9416.65–35.72
Shots in box
79%
15%
homeawaytotalprediction10.486.6717.15safe7.54–13.423.99–9.3511.53–22.77safer6.71–14.253.25–10.099.96–24.34
Blocked shots
68%
19%
homeawaytotalprediction4.252.506.75safe2.37–6.130.85–4.153.22–10.29safer1.83–6.680.36–4.652.18–11.32
Corners
79%
13%
homeawaytotalprediction6.613.5710.18safe4.39–8.821.57–5.575.96–14.39safer3.82–9.391.04–6.104.85–15.50
Possession %
79%
17%
homeawayprediction57.3042.45safe50.51–64.0935.67–49.24safer48.84–65.7633.99–50.91
Passes
83%
17%
homeawaytotalprediction476361837safe409–544294–427703–971safer391–562277–445668–1006
Pass accuracy %
70%
25%
homeawayprediction72.7968.15safe68.76–76.8263.83–72.47safer67.47–78.1162.52–73.78
Fouls
57%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction14.6113.1727.78safe11.78–17.4510.23–16.1122.00–33.57safer11.02–18.219.48–16.8620.50–35.07
Offsides
44%
21%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction1.961.753.71safe0.80–3.120.66–2.841.46–5.96safer0.50–3.420.37–3.130.87–6.55
Yellow cards
41%
20%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.162.094.24safe1.11–3.200.96–3.222.06–6.42safer0.84–3.470.67–3.511.51–6.98
Red cards
82%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.120.21safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.56safer0.00–0.400.00–0.440.00–0.84
GK saves
24%
15%
61%
homeawaytotalprediction2.343.535.86safe0.90–3.771.97–5.082.87–8.86safer0.51–4.161.55–5.512.06–9.67
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.77 0.80–2.74 0.55–2.99 | 0.97 0.12–1.83 0.00–2.06 | 2.74 0.92–4.57 0.44–5.05 | 56% 23% 21% |
| Shots on target | 5.48 3.62–7.34 3.13–7.83 | 3.18 1.44–4.93 0.98–5.39 | 8.67 5.06–12.27 4.11–13.23 | 73% 17% |
| Total shots | 15.76 11.84–19.69 10.75–20.78 | 10.42 6.86–13.98 5.90–14.94 | 26.18 18.70–33.67 16.65–35.72 | 83% |
| Shots in box | 10.48 7.54–13.42 6.71–14.25 | 6.67 3.99–9.35 3.25–10.09 | 17.15 11.53–22.77 9.96–24.34 | 79% 15% |
| Blocked shots | 4.25 2.37–6.13 1.83–6.68 | 2.50 0.85–4.15 0.36–4.65 | 6.75 3.22–10.29 2.18–11.32 | 68% 19% |
| Corners | 6.61 4.39–8.82 3.82–9.39 | 3.57 1.57–5.57 1.04–6.10 | 10.18 5.96–14.39 4.85–15.50 | 79% 13% |
| Possession % | 57.30 50.51–64.09 48.84–65.76 | 42.45 35.67–49.24 33.99–50.91 | — | 79% 17% |
| Passes | 476 409–544 391–562 | 361 294–427 277–445 | 837 703–971 668–1006 | 83% 17% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.79 68.76–76.82 67.47–78.11 | 68.15 63.83–72.47 62.52–73.78 | — | 70% 25% |
| Fouls | 14.61 11.78–17.45 11.02–18.21 | 13.17 10.23–16.11 9.48–16.86 | 27.78 22.00–33.57 20.50–35.07 | 57% 36% |
| Offsides | 1.96 0.80–3.12 0.50–3.42 | 1.75 0.66–2.84 0.37–3.13 | 3.71 1.46–5.96 0.87–6.55 | 44% 21% 35% |
| Yellow cards | 2.16 1.11–3.20 0.84–3.47 | 2.09 0.96–3.22 0.67–3.51 | 4.24 2.06–6.42 1.51–6.98 | 41% 20% 39% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.12 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.44 | 0.21 0.00–0.56 0.00–0.84 | 82% |
| GK saves | 2.34 0.90–3.77 0.51–4.16 | 3.53 1.97–5.08 1.55–5.51 | 5.86 2.87–8.86 2.06–9.67 | 24% 15% 61% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+