Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
38%
28%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction1.191.092.29safe0.23–2.160.24–1.950.47–4.11safer0.00–2.410.01–2.180.00–4.59
Shots on target
51%
14%
35%
homeawaytotalprediction4.373.798.17safe2.51–6.242.05–5.544.56–11.77safer2.02–6.731.59–6.003.61–12.73
Total shots
52%
40%
homeawaytotalprediction13.1412.4125.55safe9.21–17.068.85–15.9818.06–33.04safer8.12–18.157.89–16.9316.01–35.09
Shots in box
54%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction8.067.2015.26safe5.11–11.004.52–9.889.63–20.88safer4.28–11.833.78–10.628.07–22.45
Blocked shots
45%
16%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction3.213.016.22safe1.33–5.091.36–4.662.69–9.76safer0.79–5.640.86–5.151.65–10.79
Corners
47%
14%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction4.544.258.79safe2.32–6.752.25–6.254.58–13.00safer1.75–7.331.72–6.793.47–14.11
Possession %
75%
22%
homeawayprediction56.3544.17safe49.56–63.1437.38–50.95safer47.89–64.8135.71–52.62
Passes
82%
18%
homeawaytotalprediction478369847safe410–545303–436713–980safer392–563285–453677–1016
Pass accuracy %
55%
40%
homeawayprediction72.3870.84safe68.36–76.4166.52–75.16safer67.06–77.7165.21–76.47
Fouls
43%
49%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6113.9727.59safe10.78–16.4511.03–16.9221.81–33.37safer10.02–17.2110.28–17.6720.30–34.88
Offsides
52%
22%
26%
homeawaytotalprediction1.951.313.26safe0.78–3.110.22–2.411.01–5.51safer0.48–3.410.00–2.700.42–6.10
Yellow cards
34%
19%
47%
homeawaytotalprediction2.092.434.52safe1.04–3.141.30–3.562.34–6.70safer0.77–3.401.01–3.851.79–7.26
Red cards
80%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.140.23safe0.00–0.250.00–0.330.00–0.58safer0.00–0.400.00–0.460.00–0.86
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.632.915.54safe1.20–4.071.35–4.472.55–8.54safer0.81–4.460.93–4.891.74–9.35
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.19 0.23–2.16 0.00–2.41 | 1.09 0.24–1.95 0.01–2.18 | 2.29 0.47–4.11 0.00–4.59 | 38% 28% 33% |
| Shots on target | 4.37 2.51–6.24 2.02–6.73 | 3.79 2.05–5.54 1.59–6.00 | 8.17 4.56–11.77 3.61–12.73 | 51% 14% 35% |
| Total shots | 13.14 9.21–17.06 8.12–18.15 | 12.41 8.85–15.98 7.89–16.93 | 25.55 18.06–33.04 16.01–35.09 | 52% 40% |
| Shots in box | 8.06 5.11–11.00 4.28–11.83 | 7.20 4.52–9.88 3.78–10.62 | 15.26 9.63–20.88 8.07–22.45 | 54% 36% |
| Blocked shots | 3.21 1.33–5.09 0.79–5.64 | 3.01 1.36–4.66 0.86–5.15 | 6.22 2.69–9.76 1.65–10.79 | 45% 16% 39% |
| Corners | 4.54 2.32–6.75 1.75–7.33 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.79 | 8.79 4.58–13.00 3.47–14.11 | 47% 14% 39% |
| Possession % | 56.35 49.56–63.14 47.89–64.81 | 44.17 37.38–50.95 35.71–52.62 | — | 75% 22% |
| Passes | 478 410–545 392–563 | 369 303–436 285–453 | 847 713–980 677–1016 | 82% 18% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.38 68.36–76.41 67.06–77.71 | 70.84 66.52–75.16 65.21–76.47 | — | 55% 40% |
| Fouls | 13.61 10.78–16.45 10.02–17.21 | 13.97 11.03–16.92 10.28–17.67 | 27.59 21.81–33.37 20.30–34.88 | 43% 49% |
| Offsides | 1.95 0.78–3.11 0.48–3.41 | 1.31 0.22–2.41 0.00–2.70 | 3.26 1.01–5.51 0.42–6.10 | 52% 22% 26% |
| Yellow cards | 2.09 1.04–3.14 0.77–3.40 | 2.43 1.30–3.56 1.01–3.85 | 4.52 2.34–6.70 1.79–7.26 | 34% 19% 47% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.14 0.00–0.33 0.00–0.46 | 0.23 0.00–0.58 0.00–0.86 | 80% |
| GK saves | 2.63 1.20–4.07 0.81–4.46 | 2.91 1.35–4.47 0.93–4.89 | 5.54 2.55–8.54 1.74–9.35 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.