Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
39%
25%
36%
homeawaytotalprediction1.461.382.83safe0.49–2.420.52–2.231.01–4.66safer0.24–2.670.30–2.460.53–5.14
Shots on target
41%
13%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction4.404.588.98safe2.54–6.262.84–6.325.37–12.58safer2.05–6.752.37–6.794.42–13.54
Total shots
62%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction14.4512.3526.80safe10.53–18.388.78–15.9119.31–34.29safer9.44–19.477.82–16.8717.26–36.34
Shots in box
49%
41%
homeawaytotalprediction8.678.2216.89safe5.73–11.615.54–10.9011.27–22.51safer4.90–12.444.80–11.649.70–24.08
Blocked shots
54%
15%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.712.956.66safe1.83–5.591.30–4.613.13–10.20safer1.28–6.130.81–5.102.09–11.23
Corners
54%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.994.199.18safe2.77–7.202.19–6.194.96–13.39safer2.20–7.771.66–6.733.86–14.50
Possession %
58%
37%
homeawayprediction52.4247.87safe45.63–59.2141.09–54.66safer43.96–60.8839.42–56.33
Passes
65%
34%
homeawaytotalprediction492444936safe424–559378–511802–1069safer406–577360–528766–1105
Pass accuracy %
38%
57%
homeawayprediction72.6374.50safe68.60–76.6670.17–78.82safer67.31–77.9668.86–80.13
Fouls
54%
38%
homeawaytotalprediction13.0712.0725.14safe10.23–15.909.13–15.0219.36–30.92safer9.47–16.668.38–15.7717.85–32.42
Offsides
32%
22%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction1.511.853.36safe0.35–2.670.75–2.941.11–5.61safer0.05–2.980.46–3.230.52–6.20
Yellow cards
43%
20%
37%
homeawaytotalprediction2.192.014.20safe1.14–3.240.88–3.142.02–6.38safer0.87–3.500.59–3.431.46–6.93
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.100.120.22safe0.00–0.260.00–0.300.00–0.57safer0.00–0.410.00–0.440.00–0.85
GK saves
43%
17%
39%
homeawaytotalprediction2.872.745.61safe1.43–4.301.19–4.302.62–8.60safer1.04–4.690.76–4.721.81–9.42
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.46 0.49–2.42 0.24–2.67 | 1.38 0.52–2.23 0.30–2.46 | 2.83 1.01–4.66 0.53–5.14 | 39% 25% 36% |
| Shots on target | 4.40 2.54–6.26 2.05–6.75 | 4.58 2.84–6.32 2.37–6.79 | 8.98 5.37–12.58 4.42–13.54 | 41% 13% 46% |
| Total shots | 14.45 10.53–18.38 9.44–19.47 | 12.35 8.78–15.91 7.82–16.87 | 26.80 19.31–34.29 17.26–36.34 | 62% 31% |
| Shots in box | 8.67 5.73–11.61 4.90–12.44 | 8.22 5.54–10.90 4.80–11.64 | 16.89 11.27–22.51 9.70–24.08 | 49% 41% |
| Blocked shots | 3.71 1.83–5.59 1.28–6.13 | 2.95 1.30–4.61 0.81–5.10 | 6.66 3.13–10.20 2.09–11.23 | 54% 15% 31% |
| Corners | 4.99 2.77–7.20 2.20–7.77 | 4.19 2.19–6.19 1.66–6.73 | 9.18 4.96–13.39 3.86–14.50 | 54% 33% |
| Possession % | 52.42 45.63–59.21 43.96–60.88 | 47.87 41.09–54.66 39.42–56.33 | — | 58% 37% |
| Passes | 492 424–559 406–577 | 444 378–511 360–528 | 936 802–1069 766–1105 | 65% 34% |
| Pass accuracy % | 72.63 68.60–76.66 67.31–77.96 | 74.50 70.17–78.82 68.86–80.13 | — | 38% 57% |
| Fouls | 13.07 10.23–15.90 9.47–16.66 | 12.07 9.13–15.02 8.38–15.77 | 25.14 19.36–30.92 17.85–32.42 | 54% 38% |
| Offsides | 1.51 0.35–2.67 0.05–2.98 | 1.85 0.75–2.94 0.46–3.23 | 3.36 1.11–5.61 0.52–6.20 | 32% 22% 46% |
| Yellow cards | 2.19 1.14–3.24 0.87–3.50 | 2.01 0.88–3.14 0.59–3.43 | 4.20 2.02–6.38 1.46–6.93 | 43% 20% 37% |
| Red cards | 0.10 0.00–0.26 0.00–0.41 | 0.12 0.00–0.30 0.00–0.44 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.87 1.43–4.30 1.04–4.69 | 2.74 1.19–4.30 0.76–4.72 | 5.61 2.62–8.60 1.81–9.42 | 43% 17% 39% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.