Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·
Primeira Liga·Regular Season - 33·Predicted match statistics
Goals
43%
26%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction1.431.152.58safe0.46–2.400.30–2.010.76–4.40safer0.21–2.650.07–2.230.28–4.88
Shots on target
54%
14%
33%
homeawaytotalprediction4.503.738.23safe2.64–6.361.99–5.474.62–11.83safer2.15–6.851.52–5.943.67–12.79
Total shots
67%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction13.9211.2725.19safe9.99–17.847.71–14.8417.70–32.68safer8.90–18.936.75–15.8015.65–34.73
Shots in box
61%
30%
homeawaytotalprediction8.697.1115.80safe5.74–11.634.43–9.7910.18–21.42safer4.91–12.463.70–10.538.61–22.99
Blocked shots
53%
16%
31%
homeawaytotalprediction3.322.655.97safe1.44–5.210.99–4.302.44–9.51safer0.90–5.750.50–4.791.40–10.54
Corners
62%
27%
homeawaytotalprediction5.694.259.94safe3.48–7.912.25–6.255.73–14.16safer2.91–8.481.72–6.784.62–15.26
Possession %
53%
42%
homeawayprediction51.0948.72safe44.30–57.8841.93–55.50safer42.63–59.5540.26–57.18
Passes
57%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction422402824safe355–489335–468690–958safer337–507318–486655–993
Pass accuracy %
33%
62%
homeawayprediction66.8269.67safe62.79–70.8565.35–73.99safer61.49–72.1464.04–75.30
Fouls
48%
44%
homeawaytotalprediction13.6613.3727.03safe10.83–16.5010.42–16.3121.25–32.81safer10.07–17.269.67–17.0619.74–34.32
Offsides
52%
23%
25%
homeawaytotalprediction1.811.192.99safe0.65–2.970.09–2.280.74–5.25safer0.35–3.270.00–2.570.15–5.84
Yellow cards
37%
20%
43%
homeawaytotalprediction2.022.164.18safe0.97–3.071.04–3.292.01–6.36safer0.70–3.330.74–3.591.45–6.92
Red cards
81%
homeawaytotalprediction0.090.130.22safe0.00–0.250.00–0.310.00–0.57safer0.00–0.400.00–0.450.00–0.85
GK saves
37%
17%
46%
homeawaytotalprediction2.612.875.47safe1.17–4.041.31–4.422.48–8.47safer0.78–4.430.89–4.851.67–9.28
| Stat | Homepred / safe / safer | Awaypred / safe / safer | Totalpred / safe / safer | Who wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.43 0.46–2.40 0.21–2.65 | 1.15 0.30–2.01 0.07–2.23 | 2.58 0.76–4.40 0.28–4.88 | 43% 26% 30% |
| Shots on target | 4.50 2.64–6.36 2.15–6.85 | 3.73 1.99–5.47 1.52–5.94 | 8.23 4.62–11.83 3.67–12.79 | 54% 14% 33% |
| Total shots | 13.92 9.99–17.84 8.90–18.93 | 11.27 7.71–14.84 6.75–15.80 | 25.19 17.70–32.68 15.65–34.73 | 67% 27% |
| Shots in box | 8.69 5.74–11.63 4.91–12.46 | 7.11 4.43–9.79 3.70–10.53 | 15.80 10.18–21.42 8.61–22.99 | 61% 30% |
| Blocked shots | 3.32 1.44–5.21 0.90–5.75 | 2.65 0.99–4.30 0.50–4.79 | 5.97 2.44–9.51 1.40–10.54 | 53% 16% 31% |
| Corners | 5.69 3.48–7.91 2.91–8.48 | 4.25 2.25–6.25 1.72–6.78 | 9.94 5.73–14.16 4.62–15.26 | 62% 27% |
| Possession % | 51.09 44.30–57.88 42.63–59.55 | 48.72 41.93–55.50 40.26–57.18 | — | 53% 42% |
| Passes | 422 355–489 337–507 | 402 335–468 318–486 | 824 690–958 655–993 | 57% 43% |
| Pass accuracy % | 66.82 62.79–70.85 61.49–72.14 | 69.67 65.35–73.99 64.04–75.30 | — | 33% 62% |
| Fouls | 13.66 10.83–16.50 10.07–17.26 | 13.37 10.42–16.31 9.67–17.06 | 27.03 21.25–32.81 19.74–34.32 | 48% 44% |
| Offsides | 1.81 0.65–2.97 0.35–3.27 | 1.19 0.09–2.28 0.00–2.57 | 2.99 0.74–5.25 0.15–5.84 | 52% 23% 25% |
| Yellow cards | 2.02 0.97–3.07 0.70–3.33 | 2.16 1.04–3.29 0.74–3.59 | 4.18 2.01–6.36 1.45–6.92 | 37% 20% 43% |
| Red cards | 0.09 0.00–0.25 0.00–0.40 | 0.13 0.00–0.31 0.00–0.45 | 0.22 0.00–0.57 0.00–0.85 | 81% |
| GK saves | 2.61 1.17–4.04 0.78–4.43 | 2.87 1.31–4.42 0.89–4.85 | 5.47 2.48–8.47 1.67–9.28 | 37% 17% 46% |
safe = prediction ± MAE · safer = ± RMSE of the serving model for that statistic. The bars show the model's own chance of each side recording more of that statistic — a Poisson approximation from the predicted rates, with the two teams treated as independent
Statistical estimates for information & entertainment only — not betting advice.18+